***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 27.5 255.7 88.3 80.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 10.7 18.3 23.2 231.8 86.0 76.4 0.5 7.2 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 13.9 28.3 28.7 263.9 91.4 80.7 1.0 3.7 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 17.0 28.8 33.0 235.3 87.0 79.6 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 14.7 23.7 30.2 230.0 86.7 79.6 1.1 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 12.7 21.3 28.6 191.4 83.8 74.6 1.1 4.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 11.4 20.8 22.2 225.5 87.0 76.2 0.8 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 21.3 27.5 29.5 215.4 85.7 78.0 2.7 10.2 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 16.6 22.9 29.2 233.6 87.6 79.5 1.6 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 21.6 30.2 31.9 237.6 89.1 80.3 2.3 12.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 16.3 27.4 28.3 227.1 86.9 78.9 3.3 8.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 13.3 25.0 25.9 203.1 85.0 76.9 0.6 8.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 13.7 19.2 27.0 188.8 83.9 75.2 0.7 7.2 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 22.8 40.7 33.6 263.0 92.4 80.6 5.6 9.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 11.1 21.5 33.9 223.0 85.5 76.5 0.7 2.0 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 11.8 21.5 27.4 206.9 85.3 76.6 0.9 6.0 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 11.7 18.1 19.8 221.8 87.9 75.2 0.5 3.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 23 77 100 19.6 29.6 33.9 237.2 90.4 80.2 2.4 4.0 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 14.8 21.5 24.7 237.1 87.2 77.1 0.7 8.9 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 21.2 26.5 32.3 190.2 82.1 76.5 1.0 8.4 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 13.5 23.8 28.9 252.8 89.3 80.9 1.3 2.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 14.2 20.5 20.9 217.1 85.3 76.0 0.3 5.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 14.2 20.7 27.2 244.7 90.0 77.9 1.3 9.7 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 19.7 40.7 33.4 261.2 92.8 80.6 2.2 6.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 13.8 22.0 28.6 230.9 85.8 79.9 0.8 2.7 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.0 19.8 24.8 170.3 79.3 72.3 1.8 4.9 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 13.4 21.1 26.7 230.4 86.0 78.7 2.9 5.2 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 11.6 24.5 32.9 228.5 87.6 77.8 2.2 3.8 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 26.6 39.1 33.0 217.3 87.3 78.5 3.7 9.5 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 12.4 20.2 24.9 238.4 87.5 77.7 1.2 6.9 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------