***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 0.0 14.8 0.8 62.9 62.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 13.3 15.3 14.5 0.7 62.4 60.6 14.2 14.6 15.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 16.4 16.3 15.0 0.9 62.7 62.3 14.5 15.7 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 10.2 9.9 12.9 0.8 64.2 61.6 7.9 9.1 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.1 13.7 1.0 65.0 63.2 14.2 15.6 16.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 16.2 15.8 12.8 1.2 68.6 64.1 12.9 15.1 15.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 13.2 15.1 14.4 0.7 63.5 61.0 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 8.2 8.4 13.0 1.1 67.6 63.8 5.8 7.0 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 16.8 16.7 14.4 1.1 65.2 63.7 14.4 16.1 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 16.2 16.3 13.6 1.1 65.6 63.4 13.9 15.7 16.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 16.7 16.7 13.7 1.1 66.6 63.6 13.9 16.0 16.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 16.6 16.4 13.6 1.1 67.6 64.2 13.3 15.5 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 16.9 17.1 13.5 1.2 68.3 64.0 14.0 15.9 17.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.6 16.8 14.4 0.9 63.0 60.7 14.7 16.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.6 15.1 13.2 0.7 63.1 60.9 13.5 14.2 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 17.3 17.3 13.6 1.1 67.5 63.7 14.5 16.6 17.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 15.0 14.6 14.2 0.7 62.3 61.0 13.6 14.1 15.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 13.1 15.6 13.2 1.0 64.2 61.7 13.2 14.8 15.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 15.5 15.4 14.8 0.8 62.8 61.0 14.2 15.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 11.1 13.3 11.4 1.0 61.8 61.2 10.9 12.9 13.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 16.4 16.5 14.7 0.9 63.4 62.7 14.5 15.6 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 13.5 15.6 14.4 0.7 63.6 60.7 14.0 15.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.0 15.0 0.9 64.5 61.7 13.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 14.5 17.0 14.3 1.0 63.6 61.9 14.9 16.3 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 15.8 15.3 13.5 0.8 64.4 62.0 13.6 14.8 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 16.7 16.7 13.3 1.3 71.3 65.7 13.7 15.7 16.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 16.2 15.8 14.2 0.8 63.2 61.8 14.2 15.4 15.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 15.3 16.4 13.3 0.8 64.1 61.5 13.8 14.9 16.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.2 12.3 12.5 1.0 64.0 61.5 9.8 12.0 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 15.6 15.3 14.7 0.7 62.9 61.0 14.1 14.6 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------