***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9999.0 0.0 13.8 0.8 57.1 57.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 14.6 15.0 13.6 0.6 54.1 56.3 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.3 16.1 14.1 0.8 56.8 58.0 12.9 15.6 17.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.0 12.0 0.6 53.2 55.5 6.9 9.6 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.7 15.6 12.7 0.8 55.3 57.5 13.5 14.7 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.7 15.1 11.9 1.0 54.5 58.2 13.7 14.9 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.4 13.5 0.6 54.8 56.6 12.7 14.0 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.9 12.1 0.9 57.3 59.1 6.4 7.7 8.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.3 13.4 1.0 57.0 58.8 13.2 15.4 16.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.8 12.7 1.0 56.9 59.2 13.1 14.8 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 16.1 16.4 12.7 0.9 54.7 58.4 13.5 15.2 17.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.8 12.6 0.9 56.7 58.4 13.3 15.4 16.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 13.4 16.0 12.4 0.9 54.6 58.0 13.9 15.4 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.3 16.8 13.5 0.9 56.4 58.0 11.7 16.6 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 15.1 14.7 12.0 0.4 51.1 54.6 13.0 14.6 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 16.8 16.7 12.5 0.8 55.4 57.9 14.8 15.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.9 13.3 0.6 54.3 55.9 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 14.7 12.5 1.1 58.3 59.5 12.1 13.3 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 15.1 15.2 13.8 0.7 54.4 56.7 12.4 14.6 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 10.2 13.2 10.6 1.0 58.6 58.9 10.7 12.4 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 13.7 0.9 57.0 58.2 12.9 15.5 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.7 13.5 0.6 52.8 55.8 12.3 14.3 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 15.6 15.7 14.1 0.8 56.2 57.4 12.1 15.0 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.7 16.5 13.6 1.1 57.0 59.1 12.6 15.8 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.8 12.5 0.7 56.7 56.7 13.1 14.0 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.9 15.5 12.2 0.9 56.2 58.5 13.4 15.4 16.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.1 13.1 0.7 56.3 57.4 13.2 14.6 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.8 12.2 0.6 52.5 55.7 12.7 15.5 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 12.6 11.8 1.1 58.6 59.2 9.4 12.1 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.8 13.8 0.7 55.0 56.9 12.9 14.1 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------