***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 16.8 1.8 69.9 66.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 17.7 17.8 16.6 1.8 70.0 67.0 14.0 15.3 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 18.7 18.3 17.1 2.0 70.8 68.4 15.0 16.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 11.6 11.2 15.2 1.9 68.5 67.0 6.5 8.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 18.4 18.7 16.0 2.2 69.1 69.0 14.6 16.2 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 17.8 18.2 15.2 2.6 71.7 70.0 13.8 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 17.5 17.8 16.4 1.7 69.7 66.5 13.6 15.3 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 9.4 10.1 15.5 2.7 74.0 71.2 6.1 7.6 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 18.8 18.7 16.6 2.3 73.1 69.7 14.7 16.7 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 18.3 18.5 16.0 2.6 73.2 70.6 13.9 16.2 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 19.0 18.6 16.0 2.4 71.0 69.9 14.4 16.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 18.5 18.8 16.1 2.6 74.0 70.6 14.0 16.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 19.0 19.7 15.8 2.6 72.6 70.1 14.6 16.9 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 19.2 18.7 16.8 2.5 72.2 70.4 14.8 16.7 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 16.5 15.8 15.0 1.7 68.1 65.4 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 19.5 19.9 15.8 2.4 71.6 69.7 15.1 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 17.1 17.5 16.3 1.9 70.3 67.9 13.1 15.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 17.2 17.7 15.8 2.7 74.1 71.0 12.9 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 17.9 18.1 16.9 1.9 70.3 67.9 14.2 15.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 14.8 15.5 14.1 2.8 72.2 71.9 11.0 13.0 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 18.5 18.6 16.9 2.1 71.9 68.6 14.4 16.4 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 18.1 17.7 16.6 2.0 69.6 68.9 14.2 15.5 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 18.3 18.4 17.2 2.1 71.9 69.3 14.4 15.9 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 19.3 19.4 16.8 2.5 73.7 70.4 14.4 17.2 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 17.7 17.5 15.5 1.8 69.3 67.0 13.9 15.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 18.4 18.8 15.7 2.6 74.3 71.3 14.5 16.7 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 18.1 17.5 16.1 1.8 69.1 66.4 14.4 15.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 17.1 16.1 15.4 1.9 68.6 66.8 13.3 14.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.4 15.1 2.8 71.9 71.3 10.3 12.5 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 17.9 17.9 16.8 1.8 70.0 66.8 13.8 15.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------