***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 16.9 0.6 51.8 55.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 18.2 17.8 16.6 0.4 50.5 53.5 16.3 17.8 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 18.9 19.0 16.9 0.6 51.2 54.0 17.3 18.6 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.1 11.4 14.7 0.8 55.9 57.5 9.2 10.6 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 18.8 19.0 16.0 0.9 56.1 57.4 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 17.8 18.1 14.9 1.2 62.2 60.7 15.4 17.2 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 17.9 17.6 16.5 0.5 51.6 54.4 15.9 17.5 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 8.8 8.6 14.8 1.0 56.5 57.2 7.4 8.3 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 19.0 18.8 16.8 0.9 54.6 56.8 16.8 18.6 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 18.4 18.3 15.5 0.9 53.5 55.8 16.3 18.1 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 18.7 19.0 16.0 1.0 55.6 57.7 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 18.4 18.6 15.6 1.1 60.3 59.4 15.8 18.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 18.8 19.3 16.0 1.2 63.0 60.9 16.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 19.9 19.7 16.0 0.3 49.1 51.0 17.5 19.7 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 17.1 17.4 15.8 0.6 59.1 58.0 15.1 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 19.1 19.5 15.9 1.1 58.4 59.3 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 17.8 17.5 16.2 0.4 50.1 53.5 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 18.2 18.0 14.7 0.5 50.6 52.2 15.8 17.9 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 18.4 18.2 16.7 0.4 50.4 53.5 16.1 18.1 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 15.0 14.5 13.0 0.5 50.1 51.8 13.0 14.5 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 18.7 18.7 17.0 0.7 53.4 55.1 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 18.6 18.3 16.2 0.4 49.1 52.4 16.4 18.4 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 18.8 18.5 16.8 0.5 51.1 53.6 16.4 18.5 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 19.2 18.9 16.0 0.4 50.6 52.1 17.2 18.9 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 17.6 17.9 15.9 0.8 56.2 56.7 15.7 17.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 17.7 18.9 15.6 1.6 67.9 64.8 16.4 17.2 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 18.3 18.5 16.4 0.7 53.8 55.9 16.7 17.9 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 17.3 17.6 15.4 0.7 56.8 57.7 15.2 16.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 14.5 14.2 14.1 0.5 49.9 51.8 12.5 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 18.0 17.6 16.8 0.5 51.1 54.2 16.0 17.6 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------