***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 5.1 0.3 52.3 52.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.0 4.6 0.2 51.1 51.8 1.8 2.9 4.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.6 5.6 4.8 0.3 52.4 53.6 4.2 5.3 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.7 0.4 2.7 0.4 52.2 53.5 -1.0 0.3 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 1.2 2.9 3.0 0.4 52.8 53.8 1.0 2.7 4.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 2.9 2.8 1.4 0.5 51.9 54.9 0.7 2.6 3.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 3.7 3.0 4.6 0.2 51.4 52.0 2.1 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -0.5 -0.7 2.1 0.6 54.8 55.6 -3.2 -0.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.0 3.7 0.4 53.4 53.8 2.4 3.7 4.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.4 2.7 0.5 54.5 54.9 1.9 3.2 4.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 3.5 3.2 2.9 0.6 55.3 55.4 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 2.7 2.4 2.6 0.6 56.1 56.0 0.6 2.1 2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.7 2.1 0.5 55.0 55.2 1.0 2.0 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 2.7 4.0 3.7 0.4 52.9 53.8 2.9 3.9 5.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 3.7 3.1 3.1 0.4 53.9 54.2 1.5 3.0 3.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.2 2.4 0.5 54.9 55.5 2.3 3.6 4.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.4 4.5 0.2 51.0 51.7 1.8 3.4 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 0.4 1.9 2.2 0.5 54.4 54.6 0.8 1.8 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 1.9 3.7 4.7 0.2 51.3 52.4 2.0 3.5 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -2.6 -1.2 1.0 0.4 51.0 53.6 -2.1 -1.3 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.5 3.4 4.5 0.4 52.8 53.5 1.6 3.3 4.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.4 2.5 4.5 0.2 49.9 51.4 1.7 2.5 3.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.7 3.3 4.6 0.4 52.7 53.4 2.1 3.1 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 1.4 3.0 3.6 0.5 54.1 54.7 1.9 2.9 3.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 1.8 3.0 3.5 0.3 51.1 53.0 1.7 3.0 4.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.2 2.6 2.2 0.5 51.0 54.7 1.5 2.6 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 1.2 3.4 4.3 0.3 52.0 52.6 1.6 3.3 4.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 1.9 1.2 2.8 0.4 52.4 54.1 0.3 1.2 2.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -0.6 1.1 1.8 0.5 53.7 54.3 -0.1 0.9 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.7 3.3 4.8 0.2 51.3 52.2 2.1 3.3 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------