***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.10.2013.-03.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 6.7 0.5 54.8 55.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.3 6.2 0.3 52.8 55.1 2.7 4.2 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.9 6.4 0.4 55.2 55.3 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 2.3 1.8 4.2 0.2 52.2 53.9 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 3.5 3.5 4.6 0.4 54.8 54.9 1.8 3.1 4.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 2.8 2.2 2.8 0.2 49.7 53.7 1.4 2.2 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.5 6.2 0.3 52.3 54.9 2.8 4.4 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.2 0.2 3.6 0.4 55.2 55.0 -0.9 0.0 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 4.9 4.8 5.4 0.5 55.8 56.0 3.2 4.5 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 4.6 4.3 4.2 0.4 55.5 55.3 2.6 4.1 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 3.9 3.7 4.3 0.4 54.8 55.0 2.6 3.5 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 3.3 2.8 4.0 0.3 54.7 54.6 1.3 2.6 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 3.3 2.7 3.5 0.2 51.3 53.3 1.9 2.6 3.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 5.6 5.3 5.2 0.4 56.4 55.5 3.8 5.2 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 5.2 4.6 4.5 0.2 49.7 54.0 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.2 3.8 0.3 53.4 54.0 3.0 4.0 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.9 6.0 0.3 51.7 54.4 2.9 4.6 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 2.8 3.7 0.3 55.9 54.8 1.1 2.5 4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.5 6.2 0.4 53.7 55.3 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 0.0 -0.2 2.5 0.4 53.5 55.0 -1.2 -0.4 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 4.7 4.6 6.1 0.5 56.7 56.0 2.8 4.3 5.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.2 6.1 0.4 53.0 55.1 2.6 4.0 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.0 6.1 0.4 54.5 55.3 3.1 4.6 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 4.6 4.4 5.1 0.4 56.9 54.8 2.5 4.3 4.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.1 5.2 0.4 55.0 55.1 2.0 5.0 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 3.7 3.0 3.7 0.2 50.0 53.1 1.9 3.0 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.6 6.0 0.4 55.0 55.4 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 3.2 2.8 4.2 0.2 51.3 53.7 2.0 2.8 3.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.1 2.9 3.2 0.3 54.1 54.6 1.2 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.5 6.4 0.4 53.2 55.3 3.6 4.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------