***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 8.7 1.0 54.0 60.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.2 8.5 1.3 59.5 63.9 4.0 5.6 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.3 8.5 1.1 57.0 62.5 5.2 7.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.1 6.2 0.8 55.5 58.2 0.5 1.8 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.9 6.6 1.0 55.8 60.4 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 6.0 4.8 5.1 1.1 61.4 63.1 3.3 4.2 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 7.0 6.7 8.4 1.3 58.9 63.4 3.8 5.7 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 2.2 1.2 5.6 1.2 57.5 62.2 -1.3 0.5 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.1 7.3 1.2 57.3 62.4 4.3 5.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 6.8 5.7 6.1 1.2 56.7 62.1 4.0 5.2 7.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.9 6.3 1.0 56.6 61.2 3.7 5.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 5.9 5.4 6.1 1.0 57.2 61.2 2.8 4.0 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 6.4 6.2 5.6 1.0 60.4 62.2 3.7 5.6 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 7.6 6.3 7.4 1.4 59.1 64.9 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.3 6.5 0.7 55.9 58.9 4.0 4.8 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 7.4 6.6 5.8 1.0 57.7 60.8 4.7 6.0 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 7.0 6.6 8.4 1.4 59.8 64.4 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 6.0 4.7 5.7 1.2 57.7 62.3 3.3 4.2 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 7.4 6.7 8.5 1.3 60.0 64.1 3.8 5.8 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 3.2 3.1 4.7 1.4 59.3 63.1 -0.2 2.2 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 6.1 5.8 8.1 1.1 55.7 61.1 4.0 5.6 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.1 8.4 1.5 61.1 65.5 2.9 5.4 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.2 8.3 1.3 59.8 64.4 3.7 5.1 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 6.8 5.2 7.1 1.3 57.6 63.6 3.7 5.0 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.3 7.3 1.0 55.9 60.7 4.3 5.6 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.4 6.0 1.2 62.5 63.2 4.4 5.2 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 7.8 6.9 8.1 1.1 56.5 61.5 4.0 5.7 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.4 4.2 6.3 0.8 54.9 58.7 3.5 4.0 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 5.1 5.1 5.3 1.3 59.1 62.9 1.2 2.9 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 7.6 7.3 8.6 1.2 58.0 63.1 3.9 6.1 7.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------