***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 0.0 10.0 1.9 76.8 74.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 7.6 7.8 9.4 1.6 73.9 71.1 4.1 6.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 10.3 10.5 9.9 1.9 77.3 75.3 6.8 9.1 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 5.3 5.7 8.3 2.5 84.3 81.9 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 8.2 9.2 8.8 2.4 84.0 81.2 3.4 5.4 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 7.6 8.6 6.8 2.6 88.6 84.4 2.6 4.5 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 7.7 8.2 9.4 1.6 74.0 70.6 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 3.2 3.7 6.9 2.1 81.4 78.5 -0.8 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 8.7 9.5 9.2 2.4 84.4 81.7 4.9 6.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 13 87 100 8.3 9.2 7.8 2.3 83.1 80.4 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 11 89 100 7.9 8.7 8.3 2.3 83.2 81.4 4.2 5.5 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 6.8 8.2 7.5 2.2 82.8 80.5 3.3 4.2 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 7.3 9.5 7.8 2.6 90.3 84.7 3.0 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 8.7 9.5 8.7 1.9 79.5 75.7 4.4 6.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 8.2 8.5 9.5 2.6 85.5 84.2 4.6 6.3 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 9.1 10.3 8.2 2.6 87.6 84.5 5.3 6.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 7.7 8.3 8.8 1.3 71.1 67.5 4.2 6.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 7.4 8.0 6.9 2.2 82.5 79.2 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 8.2 8.0 9.5 1.7 75.9 72.5 4.0 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 3.8 4.4 5.1 2.2 78.7 76.4 -0.3 1.3 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 8.3 9.0 9.9 2.1 79.9 77.9 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 7.1 6.8 8.9 1.3 71.7 67.6 3.5 5.8 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 18 82 100 8.4 9.0 9.6 1.9 79.4 75.1 3.9 6.4 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 7.4 8.5 8.5 2.1 81.2 78.2 4.2 5.7 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 8.6 9.0 9.3 2.1 77.6 76.2 4.7 6.4 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 7.5 8.9 7.8 2.6 88.0 83.0 4.1 5.1 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 8.4 8.8 9.6 2.0 77.1 74.8 4.4 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 6.9 7.9 8.8 2.5 85.3 83.4 2.4 4.5 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 6.4 6.7 6.2 2.2 81.3 78.7 2.4 5.0 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 8.1 8.2 9.7 1.7 74.7 72.4 4.5 7.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------