***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 25.2 23.2 33.4 73.7 37.1 35.8 22.4 34.1 51.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 18.0 22.8 31.7 69.7 33.0 33.3 22.8 35.1 44.5 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 27.3 26.6 33.5 73.4 35.5 35.9 25.3 38.2 55.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 45.7 39.6 40.1 79.2 45.3 41.3 32.9 40.0 56.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 26.9 37.4 38.7 80.4 45.7 41.4 29.9 38.0 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 21.8 35.3 42.4 85.1 50.5 42.6 22.8 34.9 39.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 17.4 19.2 32.3 70.1 31.7 33.4 19.4 24.1 40.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 35.2 47.3 40.8 82.1 46.1 41.9 30.8 48.9 74.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 24.9 34.1 38.5 79.8 44.8 41.0 27.1 36.5 43.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 30.8 41.9 41.6 82.5 46.2 42.0 31.0 45.7 58.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 24.4 34.8 36.9 83.1 50.6 43.6 21.6 34.6 44.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 19.5 29.4 36.1 83.3 49.8 43.9 21.5 29.7 50.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 26.4 37.0 38.5 83.2 49.2 42.6 26.0 37.3 48.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 36.5 57.7 42.5 77.8 39.6 36.9 48.4 61.6 71.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 17.9 21.5 41.1 76.0 44.6 39.4 15.5 28.5 36.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 18.0 26.7 37.1 83.0 49.9 42.8 19.9 26.8 47.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 18.2 20.5 31.0 67.9 35.2 33.8 20.3 30.4 50.5 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 36.1 40.5 45.3 80.4 44.0 39.1 30.9 51.2 58.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 18.9 27.4 32.0 70.3 32.8 33.5 27.5 35.8 55.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 31.7 40.4 52.2 74.8 36.8 35.6 35.7 50.2 68.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 25.2 31.4 35.3 78.1 43.2 39.9 23.5 33.7 44.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 23.6 26.3 32.2 69.7 36.7 33.5 21.1 45.5 51.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 22.9 34.5 34.0 72.6 33.8 34.6 34.0 43.6 54.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 31.7 43.8 40.8 78.2 41.7 37.8 42.4 48.9 54.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 42.1 25.5 38.7 75.6 42.3 37.6 19.2 32.4 51.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 41.6 36.3 37.0 80.5 43.8 41.0 27.6 37.5 46.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 22.5 23.4 36.8 73.7 38.1 35.3 21.6 32.5 50.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 36.2 30.4 40.1 80.4 47.7 41.9 16.6 32.6 41.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 45.9 47.2 48.0 77.9 39.9 37.3 43.1 58.3 79.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 17.0 23.2 32.1 70.4 31.6 33.3 23.7 33.0 39.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------