***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 3.7 12.1 10.2 103.8 60.3 50.2 5.9 8.7 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 3.5 13.5 10.5 106.9 60.5 49.5 2.2 9.2 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.3 11.8 10.3 104.4 60.1 48.9 3.7 9.6 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 2.9 22.7 12.3 116.5 69.3 51.6 1.7 6.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 2.6 13.4 11.2 112.0 66.1 50.0 1.4 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.3 14.3 12.2 119.1 67.2 46.7 1.0 5.8 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.9 10.8 10.4 107.0 61.0 49.4 1.2 7.7 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 3.5 25.1 11.6 108.1 66.2 48.7 3.4 9.2 25.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.3 10.2 11.0 108.9 63.2 47.6 1.4 5.8 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.7 15.5 11.6 108.7 63.1 48.3 2.2 9.7 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.6 12.2 10.3 109.8 65.0 49.3 1.6 7.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 2.6 15.0 10.4 110.5 67.4 49.1 3.4 7.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 1.6 15.6 11.1 111.2 64.0 47.1 2.3 4.5 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.4 18.9 13.4 113.5 64.3 50.2 7.6 14.9 19.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 1.2 12.1 13.5 116.0 67.6 48.9 1.0 2.8 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.7 16.2 10.4 110.5 66.2 48.2 0.9 7.1 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 3.4 12.7 10.6 106.3 60.5 48.8 1.9 9.4 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 4.3 16.2 12.7 107.0 60.3 47.8 3.4 11.0 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 3.8 14.8 10.6 108.0 62.2 49.9 2.4 9.3 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 3.5 14.8 15.1 97.5 60.3 46.4 4.5 8.9 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 2.7 9.6 10.4 108.5 60.8 49.0 1.4 6.2 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 4.4 16.3 10.8 108.1 62.9 49.1 1.6 12.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.4 17.4 11.1 110.0 63.2 50.2 4.5 9.3 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 4.0 12.7 12.1 109.3 60.3 48.9 3.6 8.8 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 2.6 9.8 12.0 113.0 65.9 52.9 1.2 5.8 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.3 9.3 10.9 104.0 62.8 48.1 1.5 5.8 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.0 11.5 109.3 63.2 52.3 2.3 8.6 11.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 0.9 10.7 12.3 116.7 68.2 49.7 0.9 2.3 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 6.9 20.6 13.8 104.0 60.0 47.7 7.1 19.3 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 3.1 12.9 10.3 104.4 59.3 49.3 2.0 7.4 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------