***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.2 11.3 12.2 121.7 67.6 49.5 0.6 5.3 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.2 7.0 11.7 105.4 60.8 49.5 0.7 2.5 7.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.6 8.9 11.6 116.4 67.4 51.3 1.3 5.3 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 8.1 10.8 14.8 125.0 70.8 56.8 1.9 6.4 10.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 6.6 13.1 13.5 125.2 72.5 56.4 2.1 4.6 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 3.9 7.5 14.6 125.1 73.5 58.0 1.1 2.7 4.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 5.4 6.1 12.4 109.6 63.4 50.3 0.5 3.8 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.8 10.0 13.7 115.0 69.2 56.1 1.6 6.3 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.1 10.7 12.7 118.6 71.2 54.5 1.4 5.5 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 8.0 11.8 13.6 116.7 71.1 55.8 3.7 6.2 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.6 12.6 124.9 73.4 58.1 1.3 5.2 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.9 9.9 12.2 121.4 72.8 56.8 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 5.7 9.8 13.3 127.2 71.3 58.4 1.6 4.3 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.3 15.4 13.9 112.6 66.4 53.1 3.1 9.9 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 3.8 5.9 15.4 115.2 70.6 56.2 0.7 2.3 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 5.0 10.1 13.0 128.8 73.5 59.2 0.6 3.3 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.3 3.9 11.2 98.0 58.0 49.0 0.6 2.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.4 14.2 14.9 113.2 70.9 54.1 1.9 6.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.7 6.0 11.4 105.2 62.0 50.2 1.2 3.6 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.8 19.4 109.5 66.4 54.3 3.1 4.6 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.4 12.0 120.9 70.8 53.4 0.9 6.3 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 1.3 3.8 11.1 93.6 56.1 47.3 1.8 2.9 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 6.8 8.2 11.5 108.3 65.2 52.5 1.9 3.8 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.0 15.6 13.1 112.7 69.5 52.7 2.2 7.5 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.3 9.3 13.9 118.5 66.9 51.7 1.6 4.4 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 4.2 7.8 13.0 124.0 70.5 57.1 1.1 2.8 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.0 8.1 13.2 116.7 65.7 49.9 0.8 3.1 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.8 7.2 14.8 124.0 72.6 58.5 1.0 3.9 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.9 19.2 16.6 111.3 70.0 54.0 3.5 10.2 18.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.5 5.0 12.0 112.0 64.3 49.9 0.6 3.3 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------