***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 1.7 2.9 5.0 40.5 41.8 30.2 2.5 4.9 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 1.1 1.1 5.0 38.8 38.1 32.0 0.1 3.3 10.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 2.5 3.9 5.4 42.0 39.2 31.8 2.0 6.4 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 69 31 0 100 2.7 4.5 5.9 42.7 44.8 32.5 2.3 7.2 17.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 2.4 3.3 6.3 46.4 42.0 30.9 2.4 6.8 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 1.1 2.7 8.2 56.3 41.7 33.5 0.8 4.3 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 1.3 1.9 4.9 37.3 39.3 30.9 0.3 3.9 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 3.1 5.5 7.1 52.6 39.9 30.6 4.6 8.3 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 2.2 4.0 6.4 46.1 39.7 30.1 3.0 6.0 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 3.0 4.5 7.2 51.3 39.0 30.7 3.8 6.3 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 1.2 2.3 6.5 54.2 44.6 31.7 2.1 3.7 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 1.5 3.4 6.3 54.2 42.6 31.0 1.6 5.7 9.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 1.3 3.1 7.1 55.0 40.9 32.9 2.0 5.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 3.8 6.8 6.8 43.9 39.4 31.7 4.5 10.4 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 0.8 1.9 5.9 39.7 43.1 32.3 1.0 2.5 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 1.0 3.2 6.9 55.2 42.8 32.2 1.7 3.8 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 0.7 1.4 5.0 39.4 39.7 32.5 0.7 2.1 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 1.9 4.4 7.6 47.6 36.4 29.7 3.9 6.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 1.8 2.9 5.1 39.9 37.8 32.3 1.8 5.4 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 75 25 0 100 2.4 4.3 8.6 44.5 35.4 29.0 4.2 8.6 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.6 3.7 5.5 42.7 41.5 30.8 2.2 7.6 10.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 1.3 1.1 5.7 45.0 38.2 34.3 0.8 3.9 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 3.0 4.1 5.5 41.0 37.9 32.9 1.4 9.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 2.2 2.3 6.9 45.9 37.8 30.6 1.1 6.4 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 1.5 1.6 5.7 39.2 39.2 30.2 1.3 4.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 1.9 3.0 6.1 51.4 40.9 32.1 2.2 8.8 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 1.1 2.2 5.5 39.4 39.1 29.9 0.7 3.8 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 1.4 3.4 6.2 45.6 44.1 32.3 0.7 5.0 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 3.3 6.8 7.7 44.3 35.2 28.8 6.3 8.2 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 1.8 1.8 5.0 38.7 38.5 31.8 0.9 5.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------