***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.3 2.7 6.0 45.9 46.7 34.1 0.1 3.1 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 1.1 1.5 4.6 38.9 42.6 31.0 0.6 2.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 0.7 1.5 6.2 47.9 45.3 34.5 0.5 1.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 1.9 3.0 7.0 49.2 43.9 30.4 1.4 5.3 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 1.9 3.1 7.7 56.0 43.0 35.2 0.7 4.6 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.0 4.4 7.4 55.6 48.2 35.2 0.6 5.0 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 0.7 1.0 4.7 38.7 42.4 33.0 0.7 1.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 4.3 8.4 8.4 61.8 44.1 37.6 3.1 10.2 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.4 4.0 8.4 61.9 46.8 37.0 0.5 6.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 3.9 9.1 9.1 65.6 46.3 39.1 2.3 9.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 2.3 5.0 7.4 58.1 46.9 35.8 0.7 5.8 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.1 2.0 7.2 58.9 45.8 36.8 0.9 4.8 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.1 3.7 7.1 54.4 45.2 35.5 1.1 7.1 12.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 3.1 2.0 8.4 56.4 43.5 36.6 0.8 7.8 18.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 0.5 1.9 6.3 44.6 44.6 27.0 0.5 2.4 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.0 3.1 6.9 53.8 45.1 34.3 1.4 5.2 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 0.7 1.2 4.2 36.6 41.9 30.9 0.2 1.9 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.2 3.8 10.0 66.0 45.8 38.8 2.1 4.0 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 2.8 2.2 5.0 40.9 42.2 31.1 0.5 7.3 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.0 4.2 9.0 53.4 39.3 33.2 1.3 8.4 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 1.8 3.0 7.5 57.9 48.6 37.6 0.1 4.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 1.0 1.1 4.6 39.3 40.3 30.6 0.4 2.7 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.3 1.4 5.9 46.1 42.5 32.4 0.3 3.2 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.1 8.7 60.2 46.2 37.2 0.4 4.2 14.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 0.8 1.2 7.2 49.9 45.1 33.4 0.5 2.1 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.3 4.9 7.0 53.2 46.6 34.6 1.1 5.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.8 3.8 6.6 46.7 44.3 33.6 0.9 4.3 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 1.2 3.5 6.8 49.4 42.9 29.8 1.5 3.9 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.1 7.6 9.9 61.9 43.9 36.9 4.2 10.5 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.3 1.1 4.9 39.9 43.2 31.9 0.5 3.1 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------