***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 16.5 18.4 16.2 1.8 83.6 77.4 14.0 15.5 16.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 16.3 17.2 16.3 2.0 85.5 78.8 14.4 15.0 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 16.9 18.4 16.5 2.0 85.4 78.7 14.7 16.0 16.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 10.6 11.3 14.0 1.7 81.1 74.8 8.0 9.1 10.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 16.9 18.2 14.9 1.9 84.8 77.1 14.5 15.9 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 16.5 17.4 13.8 1.8 83.1 75.7 13.2 15.3 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 15.9 16.4 16.0 1.8 81.8 77.3 14.2 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 8.7 9.5 14.3 2.1 87.3 80.4 5.9 7.4 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 17.1 19.3 15.6 2.0 85.8 78.0 14.7 16.3 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 16.6 18.7 14.9 2.1 87.4 79.5 14.1 15.7 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 17.0 18.6 14.8 1.9 84.6 77.5 14.4 16.0 16.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 17.0 18.1 14.7 1.9 84.4 77.8 13.5 15.6 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 17.3 17.8 14.4 1.7 81.6 74.8 14.2 16.2 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 17.3 18.3 16.1 2.4 89.1 81.4 14.8 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 15.8 16.3 14.2 1.4 78.3 71.9 13.7 14.5 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 17.7 18.2 14.5 1.7 82.4 75.7 14.7 16.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 15.5 16.2 16.0 2.1 85.7 79.8 13.9 14.5 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 16.0 17.2 14.8 2.3 88.9 80.6 13.5 14.9 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 16.4 17.4 16.5 2.1 88.1 79.9 14.4 15.3 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 19 81 100 13.8 15.4 13.1 2.3 89.6 81.8 11.0 13.3 13.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 16.8 18.4 16.1 2.0 85.7 78.1 14.6 16.0 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 16.3 17.5 16.3 2.3 89.4 81.6 14.4 15.3 15.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 16.6 17.7 16.7 2.2 89.0 81.0 14.1 15.8 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 17.2 19.1 15.9 2.3 88.6 80.6 15.0 16.5 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 16.0 17.2 14.9 1.8 84.8 77.4 13.9 14.9 15.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 17.2 17.8 14.1 1.6 82.0 75.0 14.0 16.0 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 16.4 17.9 15.6 1.8 84.5 77.6 14.3 15.5 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 16.5 17.0 14.2 1.5 78.9 72.9 14.1 15.1 16.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 13.3 14.7 14.2 2.4 88.8 81.4 9.9 12.1 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 15.9 17.0 16.3 1.9 83.6 77.9 14.3 15.0 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------