***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 13.5 12.7 12.4 0.2 48.7 53.4 10.9 12.8 14.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.2 12.3 0.3 49.0 53.8 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.0 12.9 12.4 0.2 47.3 53.1 11.2 13.3 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.1 5.4 10.3 0.3 47.5 53.0 5.1 5.6 8.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 11.3 11.3 10.8 0.2 44.9 52.6 11.0 12.6 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.9 10.1 0.2 41.7 53.1 10.8 13.1 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.5 11.5 12.2 0.2 48.8 53.8 10.7 11.8 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 2.9 4.8 10.2 0.2 42.0 53.1 4.2 5.7 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.9 12.4 11.5 0.2 46.6 52.5 11.4 13.0 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 11.3 11.8 10.8 0.2 43.9 52.6 11.4 12.1 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 11.2 12.1 10.8 0.1 43.1 52.2 11.2 12.5 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 10.9 11.1 10.7 0.1 40.4 52.2 10.9 12.6 14.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 11.0 11.4 10.4 0.0 38.3 51.7 11.1 13.3 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.1 11.7 0.1 46.0 52.4 11.4 13.5 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 10.8 12.3 10.5 0.3 50.3 53.7 11.4 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 11.6 12.4 10.5 0.1 40.8 52.0 11.6 13.6 15.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.3 11.8 12.0 0.3 50.8 54.7 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 10.2 10.5 10.6 0.2 42.2 52.2 10.1 11.2 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.2 12.4 0.3 48.8 53.7 11.1 12.3 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 8.0 9.9 9.0 0.2 39.3 53.7 8.8 10.5 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.3 11.9 0.2 47.8 52.8 11.2 12.5 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.6 12.1 0.3 50.0 54.4 10.8 12.6 13.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 13.4 12.5 12.5 0.2 49.1 53.4 11.1 12.7 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 12.1 13.2 11.7 0.2 45.7 52.3 11.5 13.8 14.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.0 11.0 0.3 49.5 53.7 10.5 12.0 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 10.9 12.0 10.4 0.1 40.4 52.1 11.3 13.0 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.9 11.8 0.3 49.9 53.7 10.8 12.9 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 10.9 12.4 10.5 0.2 47.8 52.8 11.4 12.4 13.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 7.1 8.0 10.0 0.2 40.1 52.4 7.1 9.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.7 11.8 12.4 0.2 47.3 53.5 10.9 12.1 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------