***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 15.5 16.1 15.3 1.3 64.9 62.1 12.8 14.9 16.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 15.6 15.5 15.3 1.5 67.1 62.7 13.3 14.8 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 17.0 16.9 15.5 1.4 66.1 62.3 13.2 15.0 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.7 13.2 1.1 63.0 58.9 6.9 9.9 10.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 15.5 17.0 13.9 1.4 65.3 60.8 13.6 14.7 17.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 16.8 16.0 13.2 1.5 64.2 62.1 13.4 15.1 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 15.3 14.9 15.1 1.4 66.1 62.7 13.2 14.2 14.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 9.1 8.4 13.4 1.6 64.1 63.4 6.9 7.8 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 15.6 17.3 14.7 1.5 65.9 62.1 13.7 14.6 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 17.2 16.8 14.0 1.6 65.1 62.9 13.6 14.4 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 17.4 17.3 14.0 1.5 65.4 62.1 14.0 14.6 17.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 15.8 16.5 13.9 1.5 62.5 62.5 13.7 14.9 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.5 13.6 1.4 61.2 61.6 14.1 15.6 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 18.2 18.3 15.1 1.8 69.4 64.5 13.1 16.2 17.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 15.5 16.0 13.0 0.9 61.6 57.8 13.1 15.2 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 16.9 17.4 13.7 1.4 64.1 61.3 15.0 16.1 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 14.7 14.7 15.1 1.6 68.2 64.0 12.6 13.6 14.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 16.2 16.4 13.9 1.7 65.7 63.6 12.4 13.6 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 16.1 16.1 15.5 1.5 67.8 63.1 12.9 14.6 16.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 14.9 14.2 12.1 1.7 65.4 64.0 10.4 13.2 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.3 16.7 15.0 1.4 65.5 61.7 13.8 14.6 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 15.8 16.0 15.3 1.8 70.3 64.7 13.0 14.8 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 16.5 16.4 15.7 1.7 68.7 63.8 13.1 15.1 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 18.1 17.3 15.0 1.7 66.7 63.6 13.5 15.7 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.4 13.9 1.3 64.2 61.3 12.9 14.6 15.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 16.5 16.4 13.3 1.3 58.5 61.2 13.4 16.2 16.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 15.4 15.9 14.7 1.4 65.3 62.3 13.4 14.8 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 16.0 16.3 13.3 1.0 62.0 58.4 13.4 15.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 13.8 13.3 13.2 1.7 65.5 63.9 8.9 11.4 13.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 15.4 15.2 15.3 1.4 66.5 62.3 13.2 14.4 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------