***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 17.6 18.0 16.7 1.8 68.8 66.1 14.5 15.5 17.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 17.5 17.6 16.8 2.0 69.4 67.3 14.3 15.4 17.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 18.5 18.0 17.0 2.1 70.4 67.7 15.6 16.4 18.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 10.8 10.6 14.8 1.7 64.2 65.5 7.5 9.3 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 18.7 18.1 15.5 2.0 68.8 66.6 15.4 17.2 17.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 17.9 17.2 14.2 1.4 65.4 62.6 14.5 16.5 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 17.3 17.7 16.5 1.8 68.2 65.8 14.1 15.7 17.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 10.0 10.0 14.8 2.1 70.6 67.4 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 19.2 18.5 16.1 2.1 70.1 67.5 15.5 17.4 18.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 18.1 18.3 15.4 2.2 70.6 67.7 14.8 16.4 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 32 68 100 19.3 18.6 15.3 1.9 68.5 66.2 15.3 17.4 18.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 18.6 18.4 15.1 1.7 69.6 65.4 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 19.4 19.2 14.6 1.4 67.1 62.7 15.7 17.2 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 18.7 18.8 16.7 2.6 73.9 70.0 15.0 17.1 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 15.5 15.8 14.7 1.4 61.8 63.3 13.4 15.2 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 19.7 19.8 14.9 1.6 66.3 63.9 16.3 17.9 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.2 16.5 16.6 2.1 69.5 68.1 13.4 15.4 16.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 17.4 17.6 15.3 2.4 71.9 68.6 13.8 15.7 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 17.9 17.8 17.1 2.2 70.5 68.6 14.1 16.0 17.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 15.3 15.6 13.5 2.3 72.0 69.1 12.3 13.8 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 18.6 18.1 16.5 2.0 69.2 67.4 15.3 17.1 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 17.9 17.7 17.0 2.4 70.1 70.4 14.1 16.0 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 17.8 18.2 17.3 2.4 72.7 69.7 14.4 16.0 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 18.9 19.2 16.5 2.4 72.8 68.9 15.2 17.6 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 17.3 17.9 15.3 1.9 68.2 66.6 13.9 15.4 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 18.4 18.0 14.4 1.2 63.1 62.0 15.5 16.9 18.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 17.9 18.2 16.0 1.8 68.9 66.2 15.2 15.9 18.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 15.8 16.2 14.9 1.5 63.0 64.0 14.2 15.4 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 14.5 14.8 14.6 2.4 71.5 68.9 11.1 12.9 14.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 17.7 18.0 16.8 1.9 69.0 66.7 14.1 15.4 17.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------