***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 20.6 22.1 20.4 3.9 91.3 87.6 15.8 17.7 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 7 93 100 20.7 21.8 20.7 4.2 92.2 88.3 15.9 18.0 19.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 20.7 22.7 21.0 4.3 92.4 88.6 16.3 18.3 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 13.0 15.6 17.8 3.6 89.3 85.2 8.8 11.3 12.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 11 89 100 21.0 22.5 19.3 4.0 90.7 86.9 16.3 18.3 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 20.8 22.4 17.9 4.0 89.6 86.2 15.5 16.4 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 20.3 22.1 20.3 3.8 91.9 86.6 15.5 17.5 18.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 11.6 14.8 18.7 4.7 94.2 89.8 7.1 8.6 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 20.9 22.7 20.3 4.2 91.1 87.8 16.4 18.3 20.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 9 91 100 20.4 22.1 19.4 4.6 93.0 88.9 16.0 17.8 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 10 90 100 20.6 22.5 19.3 4.1 90.9 86.8 16.3 17.9 20.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 20.4 22.5 19.0 4.2 91.9 87.7 15.9 17.4 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 20.9 22.3 18.8 3.8 88.9 85.0 16.8 18.1 20.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 7 93 100 20.9 23.2 20.9 5.0 94.2 90.4 17.2 19.4 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 18.6 19.8 18.5 2.9 85.4 81.7 15.8 17.3 18.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 12 88 100 21.8 23.4 19.0 3.9 90.5 86.2 17.3 18.4 20.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 20.0 21.7 20.4 4.3 92.5 89.1 15.6 17.4 19.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 8 92 100 19.7 21.3 19.3 5.0 94.3 90.0 15.5 17.8 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 20.3 22.2 21.0 4.4 92.6 89.3 16.0 17.9 19.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 17.8 20.6 17.7 5.0 94.7 91.1 12.8 14.3 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 7 93 100 20.7 22.6 20.8 4.2 91.7 88.4 16.2 18.5 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 20.9 22.3 20.8 4.6 93.9 90.8 16.2 18.3 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 20.1 22.6 21.3 4.7 93.2 90.2 16.1 18.0 19.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 8 92 100 20.6 23.4 20.7 4.9 94.1 90.2 16.5 19.1 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 19.9 21.4 19.3 3.9 91.6 87.4 15.8 17.3 19.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 20.8 22.4 18.2 3.8 87.1 84.8 16.4 17.0 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 20.9 22.8 19.9 3.9 91.3 87.5 16.0 17.8 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 19.4 21.0 18.2 3.3 88.1 83.6 16.0 17.5 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 16.4 19.1 18.9 5.2 95.1 90.8 12.2 13.7 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 20.3 22.2 20.7 4.0 91.7 87.6 15.8 17.5 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------