***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 5.8 6.1 8.4 1.4 77.6 73.5 4.2 5.0 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 5.5 6.1 8.3 1.6 81.1 77.0 4.2 5.0 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 7.7 8.0 8.2 1.5 80.7 76.0 6.4 7.1 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 2.9 3.2 5.6 1.2 76.0 72.5 1.2 2.1 2.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 4.9 5.1 5.9 1.2 75.2 72.7 3.5 4.4 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 4.2 4.5 4.3 1.1 80.4 73.7 2.8 3.7 4.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 5.5 5.7 8.3 1.6 78.6 76.2 4.2 4.8 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 1.0 1.5 4.9 1.3 80.2 75.6 -1.0 -0.2 0.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 33 67 100 5.8 6.2 6.5 1.2 75.1 73.0 4.8 4.9 5.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 5.5 5.7 5.3 1.3 78.0 74.6 4.2 5.1 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 5.2 5.5 5.5 1.2 75.4 72.6 4.0 4.5 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 4.2 4.5 5.2 1.1 75.2 72.4 2.8 3.5 4.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 4.4 4.6 4.6 0.9 71.4 68.1 3.5 4.0 4.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 6.1 6.6 6.9 1.6 84.1 79.2 5.2 5.4 5.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 5.6 5.8 5.9 0.9 74.4 67.1 4.2 4.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 5.8 6.0 5.0 1.0 72.6 69.9 4.6 5.3 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 5.8 6.2 8.2 1.8 81.9 78.7 4.4 4.8 5.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 4.1 4.4 4.9 1.3 79.6 75.3 3.4 3.6 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 5.9 6.3 8.2 1.6 82.1 77.5 4.3 4.9 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 1.3 1.7 3.7 1.4 80.7 76.3 -0.1 0.5 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 5.5 5.7 7.5 1.3 76.1 73.5 4.2 4.8 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 5.2 5.6 8.2 1.8 86.3 80.5 3.8 4.4 4.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 5.8 6.1 8.0 1.5 81.7 78.1 4.3 4.8 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 22 78 100 4.9 5.2 6.6 1.4 80.8 77.0 4.2 4.6 4.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 6.2 6.2 6.7 1.2 74.3 73.3 4.4 5.0 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 5.0 5.2 5.0 0.9 73.8 69.5 3.7 4.3 4.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 6.2 6.6 7.5 1.3 76.0 73.0 3.9 5.0 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 3.9 4.3 5.7 1.0 75.2 70.3 2.8 3.4 4.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 27 73 100 3.9 4.3 4.5 1.3 79.8 75.4 2.0 3.1 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 5.9 6.3 8.4 1.5 79.5 75.8 4.5 5.2 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------