***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 2.0 3.7 5.8 0.4 50.5 54.3 2.4 3.7 5.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.4 2.9 5.5 0.4 52.1 55.9 1.7 2.7 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.0 5.4 5.5 0.4 52.6 55.0 3.9 5.1 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.6 0.8 3.2 0.4 55.6 54.1 -1.6 0.1 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 0.6 3.4 3.5 0.5 55.7 54.2 1.8 2.6 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 3.3 2.7 2.2 0.5 52.0 54.2 1.2 2.7 3.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.5 2.8 5.5 0.4 52.1 56.0 1.9 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -3.0 -0.7 2.5 0.6 52.5 54.3 -3.3 -1.0 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.5 4.1 0.5 55.7 54.3 2.7 3.9 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.3 3.0 0.5 53.1 54.0 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 1.5 3.8 3.3 0.6 57.4 54.7 2.1 3.4 4.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 0.7 2.7 3.0 0.5 53.5 53.4 0.7 2.5 3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 3.2 2.7 2.6 0.3 51.6 52.6 1.0 2.5 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.6 3.7 4.0 0.3 51.2 53.5 2.9 3.7 5.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.9 3.7 0.4 56.7 54.1 2.3 3.1 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.2 4.1 2.9 0.5 54.6 54.2 2.9 3.8 4.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.0 3.2 5.3 0.4 52.6 56.2 1.9 3.1 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 0.4 2.1 2.5 0.4 48.3 52.7 0.8 2.1 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.3 5.5 0.4 53.3 55.6 2.2 3.1 4.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -2.1 -0.6 1.4 0.5 45.3 53.0 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 1.6 3.9 5.0 0.4 54.8 54.5 2.2 3.5 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 1.5 2.8 5.3 0.4 53.8 56.0 1.7 2.5 4.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.5 5.2 0.4 55.3 54.8 2.5 3.1 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.3 3.9 0.4 50.9 53.8 2.3 3.3 4.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.7 4.1 0.4 55.5 54.7 2.1 3.2 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.0 2.8 2.8 0.2 49.5 50.8 1.6 2.8 4.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.3 3.3 5.0 0.4 53.2 54.7 1.6 3.2 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 2.5 2.2 3.4 0.4 55.4 54.2 0.2 1.9 2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 -0.2 1.0 2.1 0.4 45.9 52.5 0.0 1.4 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.6 3.4 5.6 0.4 52.1 55.5 2.0 3.2 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------