***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.10.2014.-02.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 6.0 6.9 8.1 1.6 70.0 64.9 2.8 4.3 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 5.8 6.1 7.9 1.6 70.8 65.9 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.0 7.7 1.6 70.6 65.7 6.0 6.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 3.2 3.2 5.0 1.3 65.6 62.9 0.6 1.7 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 4.6 4.6 5.5 1.4 69.2 64.3 2.1 3.2 4.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 4.1 3.5 3.7 1.1 63.5 63.5 1.3 2.6 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 4.8 6.2 7.9 1.6 70.2 65.3 3.1 4.3 6.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.0 0.7 4.4 1.4 65.6 64.5 -1.1 -0.2 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 6.1 5.8 6.3 1.6 70.0 65.2 3.3 4.3 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 5.6 5.6 5.0 1.5 68.6 64.7 2.9 3.9 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 5.0 5.0 5.1 1.4 67.9 64.1 2.2 3.2 5.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 4.7 3.5 4.8 1.3 63.2 63.4 1.3 2.4 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 4.9 3.5 4.3 1.1 62.5 62.1 1.5 3.1 4.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 6.5 6.5 6.4 1.7 70.3 66.8 4.3 5.1 6.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.1 6.0 5.4 1.1 62.8 61.8 3.2 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 5.8 5.2 4.6 1.2 64.1 62.8 3.1 4.2 5.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 5.8 6.3 7.8 1.7 71.1 66.1 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 4.5 4.3 4.6 1.5 68.1 64.7 1.5 2.5 3.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 5.9 6.4 7.8 1.6 71.4 66.5 3.2 4.7 5.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 1.3 0.6 3.5 1.4 66.5 64.7 -1.3 -0.5 0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 5.8 5.6 7.2 1.6 68.5 65.0 3.3 4.2 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 5.3 5.8 7.8 1.8 71.4 67.2 2.8 4.1 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 6.1 6.8 7.5 1.6 72.9 66.8 2.9 4.5 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 5.8 5.5 6.1 1.5 69.4 65.7 3.0 4.0 5.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 6.0 5.7 6.2 1.4 67.6 64.2 2.9 4.7 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 5.1 3.8 4.5 0.9 60.2 60.6 2.2 3.4 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 6.4 6.0 7.2 1.5 68.6 64.7 3.0 4.7 5.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 4.2 3.7 5.1 1.2 62.9 62.3 1.9 2.9 4.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 4.3 4.1 4.2 1.5 67.5 64.9 1.4 2.6 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 6.1 6.6 8.0 1.6 70.4 65.5 3.5 4.5 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------