***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.10.2014.-26.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.1 7.2 8.0 0.5 58.5 55.7 4.2 5.4 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 7.5 7.0 8.1 0.9 61.7 59.9 4.3 5.4 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 5.8 8.9 7.8 0.6 60.1 57.1 6.1 7.2 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 3.0 2.8 5.3 0.3 56.8 54.1 0.7 2.2 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.7 5.6 0.4 58.6 55.6 4.2 5.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.2 4.8 4.1 0.3 53.3 54.5 3.6 4.7 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 7.6 6.6 8.1 0.9 60.8 59.5 4.4 5.7 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -1.0 1.4 4.4 0.3 54.6 54.3 -1.0 1.0 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.6 7.4 6.3 0.5 60.0 56.4 4.2 6.1 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.5 6.2 4.9 0.3 56.1 54.8 4.6 6.0 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.1 5.2 0.3 54.4 54.9 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 3.2 5.0 4.9 0.1 50.2 52.6 3.5 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.0 5.8 4.5 0.2 49.7 52.6 4.4 5.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 7.5 7.3 6.6 0.8 61.7 60.4 4.9 6.3 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 5.5 5.3 5.6 0.2 52.7 52.8 4.5 5.2 6.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 6.9 6.9 4.8 0.2 53.0 53.4 5.5 6.7 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 7.2 7.2 8.2 1.2 64.5 62.8 4.3 5.7 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.2 5.4 4.5 0.4 57.2 54.9 3.4 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 7.4 7.1 8.1 0.9 62.0 60.0 3.9 5.6 7.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 0.6 3.2 3.5 0.5 59.6 57.3 0.6 3.0 3.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.1 6.8 7.2 0.5 60.4 55.9 4.7 5.7 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 6.5 6.6 8.3 1.3 68.0 64.6 3.8 5.1 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 7.0 6.8 7.7 0.8 61.2 60.1 4.2 5.6 7.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.9 6.0 6.2 0.6 59.7 57.2 4.0 5.5 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.3 7.0 6.3 0.4 59.0 55.6 4.8 5.7 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.7 4.9 0.2 52.2 52.6 4.4 5.7 6.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.7 7.2 0.5 59.5 56.1 4.1 6.2 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 4.5 4.3 5.5 0.2 54.9 53.4 3.4 4.3 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.9 4.2 0.5 58.2 56.8 2.0 3.4 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 8.0 7.3 8.1 0.7 60.5 58.2 3.9 6.0 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------