***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.10.2014.-19.10.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 1 99 100 8.9 10.7 11.5 3.0 88.3 87.4 4.6 6.4 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 8.4 11.6 11.6 3.5 92.8 89.8 4.0 6.7 7.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 10.5 13.1 11.6 3.3 92.4 89.8 6.5 8.7 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 5.4 6.5 8.8 2.8 89.3 86.2 2.1 4.0 5.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 7.9 10.3 9.0 2.5 89.5 84.0 3.4 5.5 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 7.0 9.0 7.3 2.6 90.1 85.1 2.6 4.5 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 8.3 11.3 11.6 3.4 92.9 89.5 4.2 6.5 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 3.9 5.6 8.1 3.1 93.5 91.2 -1.0 1.1 3.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 8.8 10.7 9.4 2.4 90.1 85.1 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 8.2 10.2 8.5 2.9 91.5 88.9 4.8 6.1 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 7.8 9.8 8.5 2.4 87.9 83.6 3.8 5.9 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 6.9 8.7 8.3 2.7 88.4 86.2 3.3 4.3 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 7.1 8.3 7.2 1.9 81.2 76.1 2.9 5.3 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 9.1 11.0 10.5 3.6 95.6 93.4 4.8 6.7 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 8.2 8.6 9.1 1.9 83.3 79.4 5.1 6.8 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 8.3 10.0 7.8 2.1 85.1 79.4 5.0 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 8.3 10.6 11.5 3.8 93.7 91.8 4.6 6.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 2 98 100 7.3 9.3 8.0 3.1 94.0 91.4 3.6 5.4 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 8.7 10.7 11.6 3.4 92.9 90.2 4.1 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 4 96 100 4.0 6.4 6.4 3.1 93.7 91.2 0.0 1.4 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 4 96 100 8.9 10.9 10.7 2.7 89.8 86.6 4.5 5.6 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.7 10.1 11.6 3.8 94.6 93.2 3.8 5.9 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 8.9 10.5 11.4 3.4 93.3 91.4 4.3 6.1 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 7.5 9.9 9.9 3.3 94.6 92.4 4.7 6.3 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 9.4 11.0 10.1 2.7 88.8 85.4 4.4 6.6 7.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 7.3 8.6 7.9 2.5 85.7 81.7 4.1 5.4 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 8.8 12.5 10.5 2.7 88.3 85.0 4.1 6.7 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 6.8 8.1 8.9 2.4 87.5 84.2 2.7 4.5 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 6.3 9.8 7.4 3.0 94.3 91.2 2.7 5.2 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 8.9 11.5 11.7 3.3 92.5 89.1 4.5 7.1 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------