***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 54.5 67.0 65.3 144.0 77.9 70.0 22.8 36.3 51.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 53.2 61.7 64.8 155.3 80.0 73.8 22.2 37.7 44.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 58.8 62.9 64.6 141.2 76.4 69.4 23.2 44.1 55.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 49.2 56.9 58.6 106.8 61.9 56.6 32.1 46.0 58.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 43.0 44.7 56.3 111.9 62.4 57.2 29.9 37.5 56.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 39.6 36.2 48.3 94.4 53.2 49.2 24.7 35.3 45.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 46.3 56.7 64.8 155.2 79.5 72.9 19.8 28.9 40.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 57.2 71.5 65.6 119.2 66.9 60.6 31.3 50.1 71.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 40.4 53.2 62.5 123.9 67.3 62.3 27.1 36.5 51.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 49.8 60.5 65.2 119.8 67.0 60.6 30.5 46.0 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 41.1 43.6 55.7 110.8 62.5 57.1 21.9 35.9 48.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 40.2 55.4 57.8 115.7 64.7 59.2 21.8 34.3 57.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 42.7 43.8 53.4 103.2 57.9 53.4 29.6 38.3 50.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 82.0 81.1 76.2 136.7 73.6 68.1 45.6 65.8 73.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 39.0 35.4 52.9 95.2 56.4 52.4 14.8 33.3 44.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 35.4 40.9 53.1 106.7 60.4 55.0 19.2 28.2 48.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 62.0 76.0 66.5 161.2 82.7 75.9 19.2 31.3 41.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 54.3 63.6 71.6 126.6 69.6 64.1 30.8 51.2 58.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 69.0 84.2 64.8 152.1 79.7 73.2 28.3 38.0 64.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 56.8 76.8 84.2 126.8 70.0 64.2 32.3 50.4 68.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 39.5 58.5 62.6 130.2 70.4 65.4 19.9 34.3 56.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 58.0 67.8 67.3 155.6 81.4 74.7 25.5 45.2 50.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 76.8 92.5 66.0 146.8 79.2 71.8 34.0 44.6 58.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 65.1 65.9 69.9 132.0 71.7 66.3 41.7 49.2 58.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 42.0 54.5 65.4 129.6 69.7 65.2 17.3 37.7 52.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 41.1 42.2 56.5 105.7 59.5 55.0 31.4 37.9 50.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 48 52 100 46.7 54.7 66.2 140.3 75.0 69.1 21.3 32.3 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 38.0 39.6 50.6 95.7 56.3 51.6 17.2 33.8 45.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 65.5 95.5 77.4 130.6 71.9 65.8 43.2 57.1 80.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 48.9 59.6 65.5 152.7 79.5 72.6 23.7 33.3 47.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------