***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.0 12.0 13.3 114.3 66.3 53.1 5.4 8.4 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 12.6 12.5 116.4 66.9 52.8 3.6 6.2 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.2 11.6 13.0 107.9 64.4 51.6 4.7 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.1 13.4 14.6 101.6 62.4 50.3 1.3 6.1 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.5 13.1 14.2 102.9 65.1 49.6 1.5 5.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 2.1 7.6 13.2 91.2 55.8 47.1 1.0 5.2 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.8 9.8 12.8 122.2 69.3 53.2 1.9 6.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.1 24.0 13.9 94.5 59.6 49.1 3.2 12.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.9 10.1 15.1 106.4 66.2 51.8 1.4 5.3 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.2 11.9 14.9 99.6 63.2 49.9 2.7 8.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 4.1 11.3 13.8 101.3 64.7 49.6 0.9 9.5 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 4.3 12.0 12.9 95.0 60.0 49.1 3.6 9.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.6 10.5 14.0 95.8 61.2 47.8 2.6 6.1 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.6 19.8 15.0 98.0 60.6 50.0 8.1 14.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 5.8 8.7 14.3 95.2 63.0 50.2 0.7 2.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.0 13.8 13.7 99.6 63.0 47.7 0.3 5.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.6 12.7 120.5 68.8 54.3 1.4 7.8 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 13.9 15.3 14.9 96.7 60.6 49.5 4.7 10.3 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.4 13.7 12.2 109.8 64.0 51.8 3.6 8.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.3 12.3 17.3 98.2 59.8 49.6 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.8 8.6 14.0 108.2 66.3 51.9 1.9 5.6 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 11.9 13.0 12.7 111.2 64.2 53.3 2.3 10.0 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.5 16.0 12.2 101.6 60.9 49.5 4.1 8.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.2 9.9 14.1 97.4 60.8 49.5 4.0 8.5 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 2.6 9.2 14.3 107.5 65.1 51.7 2.7 5.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.9 7.4 13.0 84.7 54.5 48.0 1.8 6.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.9 14.6 13.8 113.7 67.3 52.7 3.8 8.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.1 8.3 13.8 97.6 62.8 48.9 0.7 2.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.8 19.2 15.1 95.3 59.5 49.2 6.9 17.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.9 13.1 12.8 116.7 66.7 52.5 2.9 6.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------