***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 11.3 12.2 10.0 82.3 60.7 49.9 2.6 6.7 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 1.8 9.7 9.5 85.7 61.6 47.9 0.1 3.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.4 12.7 9.5 76.2 58.9 46.7 2.0 7.3 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.2 10.3 8.7 61.8 53.6 44.6 2.7 8.1 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.5 7.4 54.8 48.9 39.1 3.2 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.5 6.6 9.4 73.9 54.2 45.5 2.5 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.8 6.0 9.4 84.0 59.6 46.9 1.6 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 13.9 10.7 8.8 61.2 51.0 40.2 5.1 10.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.0 8.0 8.6 65.0 52.0 45.5 4.1 7.8 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 11.2 7.6 8.8 62.0 50.2 41.4 4.6 7.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 10.5 7.3 8.8 64.0 52.5 44.1 2.5 6.9 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.1 8.8 67.4 54.0 44.2 2.6 6.5 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.2 9.4 74.2 55.7 45.6 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.8 14.5 11.2 73.9 55.7 44.3 5.6 10.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.7 6.1 8.1 57.3 53.2 42.4 1.1 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.0 6.7 9.0 71.8 55.6 46.2 3.2 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.3 9.2 85.2 60.1 49.0 1.1 2.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.2 6.8 9.6 65.1 50.6 40.1 5.0 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.5 14.3 9.3 83.2 61.3 48.1 2.7 4.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.2 12.4 68.6 51.0 40.7 4.3 8.0 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.0 10.4 9.1 71.4 55.8 47.1 2.2 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.7 8.9 80.0 58.5 46.9 0.8 5.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.9 15.6 9.3 78.0 61.1 47.9 2.9 9.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.2 10.0 69.8 54.2 42.3 3.4 9.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 2.3 5.8 9.5 69.5 55.4 42.4 1.4 5.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.1 10.4 9.7 69.6 53.5 41.6 2.9 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.3 11.4 10.4 81.4 59.2 48.0 2.3 4.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.0 7.5 55.6 51.4 42.1 1.1 7.0 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.1 10.5 10.6 67.9 52.0 40.7 5.8 9.3 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 9.3 11.3 10.0 87.5 61.2 48.2 0.9 5.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------