***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 6.3 21.6 32.0 346.9 91.9 88.2 0.1 2.8 3.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 11.8 42.3 35.4 431.8 96.1 93.1 0.0 2.8 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 12.7 36.3 32.9 364.1 94.1 89.2 0.3 5.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 15 85 100 19.2 24.1 24.9 191.3 81.2 77.9 1.6 6.3 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 15.7 23.1 24.6 234.6 85.2 80.4 0.6 5.2 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 6.8 17.5 15.2 126.6 70.5 66.5 1.1 4.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 1 99 100 10.2 34.1 35.4 429.2 96.3 92.8 0.3 2.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 23.1 35.4 30.9 245.1 86.3 81.6 5.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 14.2 24.7 27.4 269.8 88.3 83.6 0.8 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 15.8 35.6 29.3 252.4 86.8 82.2 4.2 10.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 14.1 24.3 22.6 205.3 82.2 76.9 1.3 6.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 15.6 24.6 25.8 224.7 83.7 79.6 0.9 6.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 17.6 22.1 19.0 157.4 75.3 71.4 1.5 7.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 26.2 49.8 38.2 362.1 94.4 90.8 1.6 9.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 10.7 14.4 21.1 166.3 78.4 74.1 0.5 2.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 11.7 13.6 20.0 170.3 76.2 73.0 1.2 4.9 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 13.2 28.3 36.7 446.2 96.5 94.2 0.4 4.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 18.9 40.6 34.7 289.0 91.5 86.2 3.8 9.1 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 15.0 47.8 35.4 425.5 95.7 92.8 0.6 2.9 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 8 92 100 17.3 42.7 38.7 282.0 91.6 86.0 4.6 8.8 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 11 89 100 9.9 23.2 29.0 288.9 90.1 85.0 1.7 5.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 12.1 29.2 37.6 442.5 96.2 93.8 0.2 5.7 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 14.5 51.8 35.7 409.0 95.4 92.0 0.4 2.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 7 93 100 14.8 40.0 34.8 335.3 92.9 88.6 2.5 5.4 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 12 88 100 12.4 23.0 31.1 304.5 92.0 86.0 0.8 3.5 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 23 77 100 17.0 20.1 23.5 202.4 82.2 77.6 1.9 8.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 7 93 100 10.3 18.2 31.7 334.7 93.1 87.6 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 15.0 18.9 19.7 155.9 75.6 72.7 1.2 4.0 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 27.9 39.2 38.7 302.2 92.0 87.3 8.5 12.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 13.1 40.5 34.6 409.9 95.9 91.5 0.4 1.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------