***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2020.-01.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.2 15.9 1.6 65.1 63.1 12.9 15.5 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.7 15.6 1.2 64.2 60.0 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.1 16.6 16.2 1.5 63.6 61.9 13.8 15.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 84 16 100 10.1 10.7 13.9 2.1 66.3 67.2 7.2 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.6 14.8 1.8 63.2 64.1 13.6 15.7 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 17.2 16.3 14.4 2.3 67.3 67.3 13.1 15.2 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.0 15.2 15.6 1.2 64.4 60.7 13.0 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.5 14.3 1.8 62.4 63.7 6.7 7.8 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 16.5 17.1 15.4 1.8 63.8 63.9 13.4 15.9 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 16.5 16.8 14.9 1.9 63.6 63.9 13.1 15.9 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 16.6 16.7 14.9 1.6 60.8 62.7 13.6 16.1 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 16.0 16.4 14.7 1.6 59.8 62.6 12.9 15.4 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 44 56 100 17.5 17.1 14.4 1.6 61.4 63.3 13.2 15.1 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.7 17.7 15.5 1.5 60.4 60.8 13.7 16.0 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 16.1 16.4 14.4 2.1 68.5 68.1 13.2 15.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 16.9 17.4 14.7 1.7 62.4 63.9 14.4 16.3 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.8 15.3 1.1 63.5 60.0 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 15.5 15.9 14.9 1.9 63.4 63.1 11.8 14.9 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.0 16.2 15.9 1.2 63.4 59.8 12.7 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 13.3 13.9 12.9 1.8 63.2 63.7 9.8 12.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 16.3 16.9 15.9 1.8 64.5 64.2 13.5 15.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.4 16.1 15.3 1.2 61.7 59.7 13.3 15.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 16.1 16.2 16.2 1.3 61.4 60.0 13.0 15.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.7 17.1 15.6 1.7 63.2 62.1 13.7 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 16.0 15.9 14.6 1.8 66.9 65.4 13.2 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 43 57 100 17.2 17.1 14.2 1.7 63.3 64.6 13.5 16.1 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 16.0 15.9 15.4 1.7 66.0 63.9 13.9 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.8 14.3 2.2 66.7 67.6 13.5 15.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 12.3 12.9 14.2 1.8 61.8 62.5 9.2 11.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.6 15.7 1.2 64.3 60.6 13.1 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------