***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 17.7 17.1 17.8 1.5 63.3 62.1 13.7 16.3 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.3 17.8 1.3 58.6 60.0 14.2 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 18.1 17.8 18.3 1.5 60.5 61.0 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 11.6 12.3 15.4 2.1 72.4 68.1 7.8 9.6 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 18.5 18.3 16.8 1.8 63.3 63.8 15.6 16.9 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 17.9 18.4 15.8 2.0 69.2 65.0 14.9 16.2 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.3 17.6 1.3 59.3 60.4 13.9 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 9.7 9.9 15.9 1.8 62.8 63.3 7.3 8.4 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 18.8 18.5 17.6 1.8 63.2 63.8 15.5 17.0 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 18.1 17.8 16.8 2.0 64.5 64.4 14.5 16.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 18.9 18.5 17.2 1.7 61.3 62.1 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 16.9 18.7 16.5 1.6 60.0 61.8 15.3 16.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 19.0 18.4 16.7 1.5 59.8 60.6 15.9 17.3 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 17.3 17.9 17.9 1.8 63.6 62.3 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 16.5 16.6 16.7 1.9 68.5 66.7 14.0 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 19.8 19.1 16.7 1.6 60.8 62.3 16.4 17.9 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.1 17.5 1.5 61.3 61.5 14.0 15.3 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 17.2 17.5 16.5 2.0 65.1 63.8 13.5 15.4 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.6 18.0 1.3 58.4 59.8 14.2 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 14.4 15.2 14.6 1.8 64.5 63.4 12.9 13.9 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 18.3 18.0 18.1 1.8 64.1 63.8 15.0 16.8 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 16.4 16.8 17.7 1.6 62.9 62.0 14.5 15.8 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 16.6 16.6 18.3 1.4 58.6 59.9 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 17.2 18.6 17.8 1.9 63.7 62.7 16.2 16.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 17.6 17.0 16.7 1.7 65.4 64.0 13.8 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.4 17.1 15.7 1.4 58.5 61.6 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 18.1 17.6 17.3 1.5 63.5 62.5 14.4 16.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 17.3 17.5 16.2 2.1 70.9 68.0 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 14.5 14.2 15.9 1.9 63.2 62.9 10.9 12.9 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.3 16.3 17.8 1.3 58.7 59.5 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------