***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 18.4 18.3 17.3 0.0 53.2 52.0 16.2 18.0 20.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 18.9 18.3 16.5 -0.9 49.5 46.0 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 18.6 18.2 17.1 -0.5 50.4 48.0 16.7 18.1 20.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 88 12 100 11.5 12.7 15.4 1.5 63.7 65.1 9.6 11.3 12.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 18.4 18.8 16.5 0.5 55.5 55.9 16.9 18.0 19.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 19.5 18.6 16.0 1.5 65.4 63.9 16.0 17.0 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 18.2 18.1 16.6 -0.6 51.4 47.9 16.0 17.7 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 9.2 8.7 14.6 -0.3 49.7 49.3 7.1 8.8 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 18.7 19.0 17.0 0.1 52.5 52.4 16.6 18.4 19.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 18.3 18.1 15.5 0.0 51.8 51.3 16.5 18.0 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 88 12 100 18.4 18.8 17.1 0.4 55.5 55.3 16.4 18.0 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 90 10 100 17.9 18.4 15.8 0.1 52.8 52.4 16.1 17.6 19.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 18.2 18.8 17.1 0.5 57.8 56.1 16.7 17.9 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 19.5 17.7 15.6 -1.3 42.7 40.6 17.2 19.1 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 18.6 18.5 18.0 1.7 67.5 67.4 16.2 17.6 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 89 11 100 19.2 19.3 17.0 0.8 58.7 58.8 16.9 18.8 19.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 17.9 17.1 15.8 -1.0 47.4 45.0 16.2 17.4 19.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 18.0 16.6 14.3 -0.9 45.9 44.4 16.0 17.7 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 18.7 18.2 16.6 -1.0 48.4 44.6 16.5 18.3 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 15.3 13.2 12.5 -1.4 39.1 38.2 12.4 14.7 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 18.7 18.7 17.5 0.1 52.4 52.1 16.6 18.4 19.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 18.9 17.7 15.8 -1.3 45.3 42.2 16.8 18.4 19.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 18.9 17.9 16.5 -1.2 46.6 42.7 16.9 18.5 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 19.1 18.2 16.0 -0.8 46.9 44.7 16.6 18.8 20.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 17.8 17.9 16.7 0.5 55.9 56.1 16.3 17.4 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 95 5 100 17.7 17.9 15.4 0.2 54.3 53.1 16.8 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 18.5 18.2 17.0 0.2 54.2 53.3 16.5 18.0 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 18.7 18.9 16.7 1.8 67.6 67.5 16.5 17.8 18.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 14.3 12.3 13.5 -1.4 40.0 39.3 11.6 13.8 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 18.4 18.1 16.8 -0.7 50.7 47.2 16.1 17.9 19.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------