***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 5.9 6.2 8.8 1.3 74.2 71.2 4.5 5.0 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.6 8.1 1.1 71.4 68.4 4.5 5.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 7.7 7.8 8.5 1.0 70.9 67.9 6.5 7.3 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 3.0 3.2 6.2 1.3 76.4 73.0 1.4 2.4 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.1 6.8 1.2 74.3 71.1 3.7 4.6 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 4.2 4.4 4.7 1.1 74.1 70.9 3.2 3.7 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 5.6 5.7 8.3 1.2 73.2 70.3 4.5 5.0 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 0.8 1.0 4.7 0.9 68.1 65.9 -0.7 0.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 6.0 6.3 6.8 1.0 72.1 68.3 4.9 5.3 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 5.4 5.5 5.3 0.9 69.1 66.3 4.5 5.1 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 5.2 5.4 6.1 1.0 71.6 68.1 4.1 4.6 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 4.3 4.4 5.4 1.0 71.2 68.2 3.0 3.8 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.6 5.2 1.0 71.7 68.1 3.6 4.1 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 6.1 6.2 6.4 0.8 67.5 64.0 5.2 5.7 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 5.9 6.1 7.4 1.3 77.4 74.5 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.1 5.7 1.1 74.0 69.9 4.9 5.4 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 5.8 6.0 7.9 1.1 71.4 68.8 4.5 5.0 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 3.9 4.2 4.6 0.8 65.7 63.6 3.5 3.8 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 5.9 5.8 8.1 0.9 70.2 66.5 4.4 5.1 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 1.1 1.1 3.5 0.8 64.0 63.1 0.0 1.0 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 5.6 5.8 8.0 1.1 73.8 69.7 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 5.1 5.3 7.8 0.9 70.3 65.7 3.8 4.5 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 5.7 5.7 7.9 0.8 68.0 63.9 4.6 4.9 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 5.0 5.1 6.2 0.8 67.0 64.9 4.4 4.8 5.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 6.3 6.3 8.0 1.4 76.2 73.4 4.7 5.2 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 5.1 4.9 5.0 1.0 70.3 68.8 3.9 4.6 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 6.2 6.4 8.5 1.5 76.0 73.5 4.1 5.4 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 4.2 4.4 6.3 1.2 76.1 72.8 3.0 3.6 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 3.4 3.9 4.1 0.7 62.8 61.4 2.3 3.2 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 6.0 5.9 8.4 1.1 71.5 68.5 4.7 5.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------