***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2020.-25.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 5.9 6.9 9.5 1.1 64.7 60.8 5.1 5.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 5.9 7.3 9.2 1.2 65.3 61.7 4.4 5.3 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 7.7 9.0 9.4 1.0 62.7 59.8 6.3 7.3 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 3.9 4.4 6.9 1.2 68.7 63.9 1.1 2.3 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 5.6 5.8 7.6 1.1 62.3 60.8 4.2 5.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 5.0 5.1 5.3 1.0 62.0 61.7 3.9 4.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.0 6.8 9.3 1.3 66.6 62.4 4.6 5.5 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 1.8 1.9 5.2 0.7 56.0 56.7 -0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 6.6 7.1 7.5 0.9 60.4 58.9 4.6 6.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 6.2 6.3 5.9 0.7 56.5 57.2 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 6.0 5.8 6.8 0.8 58.1 58.4 4.5 5.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 5.2 5.4 6.1 0.8 58.0 58.0 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 5.7 5.8 5.8 0.8 59.0 58.4 4.7 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 6.3 7.3 7.3 0.8 60.7 58.8 4.9 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 5.2 5.6 8.0 1.1 67.0 63.8 4.6 4.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 6.6 6.9 6.4 0.9 62.1 60.2 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 5.9 7.0 9.1 1.4 66.2 64.2 4.4 5.5 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 5.2 5.0 5.4 0.7 54.7 56.6 3.8 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.2 7.0 9.1 1.0 63.9 60.6 4.4 5.7 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 2.5 2.5 4.1 0.7 56.0 55.4 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 6.1 6.4 8.7 1.0 63.1 60.6 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.6 6.1 9.1 1.2 66.3 63.2 4.1 5.4 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.2 8.8 0.8 60.9 59.2 4.4 5.3 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 86 14 100 5.5 6.0 7.1 0.8 56.7 57.9 4.3 5.2 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.8 8.8 1.3 67.5 62.4 5.3 5.9 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 5.7 5.6 5.6 0.7 56.6 56.3 4.8 5.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.0 9.3 1.3 66.8 61.9 5.3 6.5 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 4.6 4.8 7.0 1.1 66.8 63.2 3.6 4.3 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 85 15 100 4.0 3.9 4.8 0.6 53.6 55.3 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.0 9.3 1.1 63.8 60.4 4.5 5.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------