***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2020.-18.10.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 8.0 8.8 10.6 1.9 72.5 71.7 4.8 6.2 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 46 54 100 7.6 8.4 9.6 1.2 67.6 65.6 4.6 6.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 9.8 10.2 10.2 1.2 66.9 66.0 6.8 8.4 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.4 8.2 1.8 72.0 72.5 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 7.5 7.6 9.2 1.8 73.3 72.7 4.0 5.7 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 7.0 6.9 6.8 1.8 72.1 71.8 3.4 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 7.6 8.0 9.9 1.5 71.5 69.0 5.0 5.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 1.5 3.0 6.4 1.0 64.5 63.9 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.9 8.5 8.6 1.2 71.2 67.7 5.9 6.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 45 55 100 7.8 7.7 7.0 1.0 67.4 64.9 5.1 6.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 7.8 8.0 8.3 1.2 70.0 68.2 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 6.6 6.6 7.6 1.4 68.1 68.8 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 7.2 7.8 7.5 1.5 71.2 70.5 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 7.3 7.8 7.6 0.6 62.5 59.5 5.6 6.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 8.3 8.7 9.9 1.9 81.3 77.6 6.3 7.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 8.4 9.0 8.1 1.7 74.1 72.8 5.6 6.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 6.5 7.9 9.0 1.0 66.6 63.6 5.4 6.2 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 6.0 6.5 6.3 0.9 63.5 62.6 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 7.0 8.0 9.4 0.9 64.4 62.4 4.7 6.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 2.2 2.9 5.3 1.0 63.3 62.9 0.6 1.8 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 7.6 8.4 9.8 1.5 72.6 70.2 5.2 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 6.2 6.8 8.9 0.5 61.0 58.3 4.4 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 6.8 7.2 9.2 0.5 61.2 57.7 5.1 6.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 6.9 6.9 7.9 0.8 65.4 62.7 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 9.0 9.3 10.5 2.2 74.3 75.0 4.7 6.7 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 7.6 7.8 7.6 1.9 73.8 73.4 4.7 5.8 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 8.7 9.4 10.7 2.3 77.4 75.9 4.2 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 6.7 7.3 8.5 1.8 75.9 74.0 3.6 4.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 4.9 5.4 5.6 0.7 60.1 59.7 3.5 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 46 54 100 8.0 8.4 10.0 1.3 67.3 66.3 4.9 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------