***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 41.8 50.8 56.8 117.2 65.9 60.7 22.8 36.3 51.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 42.2 44.3 58.3 121.7 65.3 62.9 22.2 37.7 44.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 58.6 56.0 59.9 121.6 66.3 63.4 23.2 44.1 55.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 50.9 56.7 62.8 112.0 60.0 58.8 32.1 46.0 58.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 56.7 59.1 70.7 129.6 70.8 67.2 29.9 37.5 56.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 39.9 38.2 62.2 110.6 62.3 57.0 24.7 35.3 45.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 33.6 40.7 58.2 120.9 65.6 62.7 19.8 28.9 40.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 74.2 72.1 70.5 122.7 68.4 62.8 31.3 50.1 71.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 41.9 53.2 64.4 118.8 67.4 61.7 27.1 36.5 51.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 58.5 62.3 70.1 121.3 68.2 63.0 30.5 46.0 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 54.2 56.5 62.3 124.0 70.4 63.9 21.9 35.9 48.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 54.8 57.9 60.2 122.5 69.7 62.2 21.8 34.3 57.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 52.9 52.6 63.8 123.2 69.8 63.2 29.6 38.3 50.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 72.1 72.4 68.7 114.6 64.5 60.9 45.6 65.8 73.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 52.1 47.6 76.7 128.2 73.3 66.1 14.8 33.3 44.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 55.5 49.5 60.8 120.3 69.3 62.2 19.2 28.2 48.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 37.5 42.5 57.2 121.2 67.4 62.3 19.2 31.3 41.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 61.0 61.4 75.7 118.9 67.7 62.0 30.8 51.2 58.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 46.1 62.2 57.8 120.7 65.0 62.4 28.3 38.0 64.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 57.1 70.4 98.2 121.6 66.9 61.6 32.3 50.4 68.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 40.8 56.7 61.3 121.0 67.4 63.0 19.9 34.3 56.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 48.0 51.1 56.8 116.0 66.9 60.1 25.5 45.2 50.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 53.1 58.5 59.4 120.0 66.0 62.8 34.0 44.6 58.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 66.7 62.3 68.4 118.4 68.8 62.8 41.7 49.2 58.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 59.2 55.0 67.5 123.7 70.0 64.8 17.3 37.7 52.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 42.3 50.4 61.4 117.3 65.8 60.1 31.4 37.9 50.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 37.3 52.8 62.6 119.3 67.8 62.3 21.3 32.3 51.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 38.9 43.2 66.2 116.4 63.2 60.4 17.2 33.8 45.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 85.4 85.9 81.2 117.8 67.5 61.4 43.2 57.1 80.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 37.8 47.8 59.5 123.5 66.2 63.9 23.7 33.3 47.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------