***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.8 9.8 10.5 83.6 58.2 45.4 5.4 8.4 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.5 10.7 9.3 77.8 57.0 46.7 3.6 6.2 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.8 10.1 80.8 57.6 44.7 4.7 6.8 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 10.9 7.0 9.9 71.4 52.9 43.2 1.3 6.1 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.5 6.4 10.0 74.7 54.3 44.1 1.5 5.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.5 9.5 74.1 52.2 45.7 1.0 5.2 11.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.3 9.3 76.8 57.3 46.6 1.9 6.5 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.0 21.1 11.0 78.3 57.4 44.6 3.2 12.3 26.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 2.5 6.4 9.8 71.8 53.9 42.5 1.4 5.3 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.5 10.7 74.1 56.8 43.2 2.7 8.6 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.6 9.1 72.3 53.7 42.9 0.9 9.5 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.5 9.4 80.1 58.4 45.0 3.6 9.8 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 2.8 10.1 9.7 81.5 58.9 46.8 2.6 6.1 15.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.2 14.3 10.8 72.5 55.0 42.4 8.1 14.0 21.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.5 11.4 78.1 56.5 47.2 0.7 2.8 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.2 9.2 76.3 56.1 44.8 0.3 5.1 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.4 8.6 74.5 54.5 45.7 1.4 7.8 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.4 14.3 12.7 80.9 59.0 45.1 4.7 10.3 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.8 9.2 76.7 57.0 45.5 3.6 8.5 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.2 12.4 17.5 91.7 61.2 47.3 5.4 9.8 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.7 9.9 77.7 56.2 44.1 1.9 5.6 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.6 11.0 8.6 72.1 54.1 44.4 2.3 10.0 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.5 11.0 9.1 74.0 56.5 43.3 4.1 8.6 18.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.5 9.3 11.1 77.2 56.9 43.3 4.0 8.5 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.1 6.1 12.2 88.3 56.4 47.9 2.7 5.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.2 9.9 86.5 60.5 48.0 1.8 6.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.4 9.0 11.9 88.0 57.3 47.3 3.8 8.6 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.3 3.3 9.9 71.1 55.0 44.3 0.7 2.4 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.2 18.9 14.6 86.5 58.4 46.0 6.9 17.9 20.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.2 10.9 9.8 79.8 59.4 46.7 2.9 6.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------