***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 1.4 6.6 10.7 84.5 56.7 45.5 1.2 3.4 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.0 3.8 10.7 82.6 56.0 44.5 0.7 2.3 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.4 6.6 11.0 85.5 54.4 44.7 1.4 5.4 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 2.8 9.7 12.9 85.2 60.1 43.5 1.0 6.5 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.0 8.9 14.1 101.2 63.6 50.5 1.5 4.8 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.6 17.3 115.8 61.4 50.6 1.1 2.8 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.4 4.7 10.6 82.6 53.5 44.9 1.3 3.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.7 11.2 16.1 113.7 66.9 52.9 1.0 6.3 11.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.2 7.7 13.5 98.7 63.0 49.4 1.6 5.2 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.1 11.4 14.8 104.0 64.2 50.9 3.3 8.1 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.2 9.4 14.0 111.7 67.2 53.7 0.8 6.4 9.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.8 8.7 14.9 121.2 68.4 54.6 0.8 3.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 1.8 6.1 15.7 116.5 63.3 52.3 0.9 3.8 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.0 8.2 13.3 86.4 54.2 45.0 2.2 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 0.9 5.0 16.7 102.5 67.3 48.8 1.0 2.0 4.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.2 6.8 14.7 113.8 65.0 52.6 0.5 2.3 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.8 4.2 11.1 84.8 54.2 45.5 1.5 3.8 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.0 10.2 15.3 95.3 58.7 47.9 1.5 5.9 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.4 10.8 83.6 55.2 44.3 1.5 3.8 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.3 9.7 20.2 97.6 59.4 48.0 1.0 4.7 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.0 7.4 12.0 90.9 58.4 47.7 1.0 6.2 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 1.8 5.2 11.0 82.2 53.8 44.8 1.6 4.0 6.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.5 4.2 11.0 84.7 53.7 44.6 1.3 3.4 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 2.9 7.4 13.1 88.7 54.4 45.6 2.4 6.8 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.3 4.6 12.6 88.7 57.4 46.3 1.4 2.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.0 5.2 15.7 116.9 62.7 53.2 0.7 2.1 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.0 3.1 11.6 85.0 54.8 45.3 0.7 2.3 5.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.4 15.1 98.8 63.8 47.7 1.3 5.0 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 13.3 16.4 92.1 55.5 47.4 5.3 10.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.6 3.7 10.6 82.5 54.8 44.6 1.1 3.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------