***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.7 14.4 13.8 117.5 63.1 54.2 2.6 6.7 16.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.0 10.7 15.6 117.1 64.5 53.7 0.1 3.8 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.1 16.3 15.2 122.0 66.0 55.5 2.0 7.3 16.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.6 13.3 11.6 88.1 57.7 39.4 2.7 8.1 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.7 12.9 16.5 130.2 68.3 56.7 3.2 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.4 9.6 18.3 130.0 69.4 58.3 2.5 5.6 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.0 7.4 16.0 122.1 66.1 54.4 1.6 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 13.5 22.8 18.9 147.5 73.2 62.1 5.1 10.6 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.5 11.5 15.6 122.1 65.9 53.2 4.1 7.8 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.8 16.6 17.8 135.6 70.4 59.1 4.6 7.6 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 9.9 12.8 14.8 131.6 70.4 57.5 2.5 6.9 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 7.9 10.1 15.7 144.4 71.3 60.2 2.6 6.5 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.4 13.3 17.2 139.7 70.2 61.3 2.9 7.6 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 14.0 21.0 18.1 114.5 63.9 55.6 5.6 10.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.2 10.5 20.3 135.4 71.7 57.5 1.1 5.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.3 13.4 15.4 129.2 68.5 58.8 3.2 5.4 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.0 7.6 15.4 113.8 66.6 53.1 1.1 2.1 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.0 11.9 19.9 131.8 70.1 58.9 5.0 6.8 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.1 15.1 14.9 113.1 63.3 53.0 2.7 4.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 16.3 27.1 138.0 71.8 60.5 4.3 8.0 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.3 14.9 14.0 118.8 64.8 52.7 2.2 8.5 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.0 14.8 102.4 60.5 50.5 0.8 5.8 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 13.5 19.1 14.8 111.9 65.2 54.1 2.9 9.8 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.7 17.9 17.8 123.7 68.8 56.8 3.4 9.7 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.4 18.7 16.8 129.5 68.1 58.2 1.4 5.0 17.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 11.9 17.3 16.3 137.4 71.2 60.5 2.9 9.6 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.9 14.8 16.2 125.6 65.2 57.1 2.3 4.3 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.4 10.0 15.5 110.4 65.5 49.9 1.1 7.0 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.0 22.4 22.4 133.8 70.7 59.6 5.8 9.3 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.1 13.3 15.8 121.6 64.6 55.4 0.9 5.8 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------