***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 5.4 7.3 21.8 189.5 82.6 76.2 0.1 2.8 3.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 9.9 18.1 22.6 236.0 87.1 80.7 0.0 2.8 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 11.7 15.1 23.6 206.3 83.9 77.6 0.3 5.0 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 13 87 100 19.5 30.8 28.4 204.5 84.5 79.4 1.6 6.3 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 15.9 21.6 30.0 208.2 84.4 79.4 0.6 5.2 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 7.0 16.5 17.2 118.7 70.1 62.3 1.1 4.5 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 21 79 100 8.5 16.1 22.2 222.1 85.0 79.7 0.3 2.0 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 20.4 25.6 24.5 149.0 77.1 69.9 5.9 8.8 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 13.1 18.1 25.5 180.7 82.2 74.0 0.8 6.1 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 15.2 20.4 26.8 168.5 80.6 73.4 4.2 10.0 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 14.0 17.0 24.4 177.3 79.4 73.3 1.3 6.2 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.4 15.6 20.1 142.6 75.0 67.7 0.9 6.0 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 17.8 22.0 21.3 150.6 75.2 70.7 1.5 7.9 15.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 23.4 35.4 26.5 190.9 83.9 76.5 1.6 9.3 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 12 88 100 12.9 27.5 28.3 202.5 85.0 79.0 0.5 2.7 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 11.8 13.1 21.5 157.6 74.7 70.8 1.2 4.9 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 11.7 16.6 22.1 245.5 88.1 82.4 0.4 4.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 16.7 22.6 27.7 165.8 82.2 72.8 3.8 9.1 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 12.5 24.5 22.9 233.2 88.5 79.6 0.6 2.9 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 15.0 18.2 33.3 157.4 79.3 72.0 4.6 8.8 13.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 9.6 11.9 25.3 197.1 83.2 76.5 1.7 5.4 8.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 11.0 19.0 22.4 243.1 89.2 81.9 0.2 5.7 8.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 12.4 27.9 24.4 225.2 89.7 79.2 0.4 2.7 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 13.2 23.6 26.4 186.0 85.2 75.7 2.5 5.4 11.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 10.9 16.8 26.0 189.7 84.8 77.4 0.8 3.5 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 10.1 18.5 19.5 124.8 71.8 65.3 1.9 8.5 17.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 8.9 16.2 23.0 183.3 82.4 76.1 1.2 3.8 6.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 17.0 22.5 25.8 188.1 81.5 76.4 1.2 4.0 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 23.8 30.5 27.7 159.1 80.2 71.8 8.5 12.6 21.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 11.0 17.6 23.4 230.5 85.8 80.6 0.4 1.7 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------