***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 13.7 12.8 13.5 -1.4 23.4 28.7 14.4 15.9 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 13.6 14.3 13.5 -1.5 23.3 28.2 14.8 15.3 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 14.1 14.4 13.6 -1.4 24.1 29.3 15.0 16.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 7.0 6.4 11.0 -1.8 19.7 24.3 8.4 9.5 10.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 14.2 14.1 12.0 -1.4 23.5 29.2 15.0 16.2 16.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 14.1 14.4 11.7 -0.7 35.6 39.3 13.9 15.6 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 13.5 14.2 13.5 -1.4 25.0 29.1 14.6 15.2 15.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.2 6.3 11.8 -0.6 34.8 40.9 6.2 7.9 8.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 14.4 14.5 12.8 -1.3 27.0 31.3 15.2 16.7 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.3 14.3 12.2 -0.9 31.6 37.2 14.5 16.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 14.6 14.2 12.2 -1.1 28.7 33.4 14.9 16.1 17.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 14.3 14.1 12.4 -0.7 34.3 38.7 14.0 16.0 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 14.9 15.2 12.5 -0.6 37.0 40.2 14.6 16.5 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 15.1 15.0 13.2 -0.9 30.8 36.7 15.1 17.0 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 81 19 0 100 13.3 13.3 11.6 -1.8 19.7 22.9 14.1 14.8 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 15.2 14.8 12.2 -1.1 28.7 34.0 15.3 17.2 17.8 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 13.1 13.4 13.1 -1.5 20.4 27.3 14.2 14.9 15.4 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 13.6 14.1 12.2 -0.6 34.6 41.8 13.9 15.1 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 13.5 14.1 13.6 -1.4 24.1 29.0 14.8 15.6 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 11.5 12.7 10.7 -0.2 40.7 47.5 11.4 13.5 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 14.0 14.2 13.2 -1.4 24.2 28.9 14.9 16.1 16.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 13.8 13.5 13.2 -1.5 21.0 28.3 14.6 15.6 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 14.1 14.3 13.8 -1.3 27.1 31.8 14.6 16.0 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.0 13.2 -0.9 30.8 37.0 15.1 16.8 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 13.4 12.8 12.1 -1.5 19.8 27.4 14.3 15.3 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 14.6 14.7 12.2 -0.6 36.3 40.8 14.4 16.0 17.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 13.9 14.4 13.0 -1.3 24.1 30.0 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 13.3 12.9 11.5 -1.7 20.8 25.0 14.4 15.3 16.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.7 11.5 11.7 -0.3 39.7 45.9 10.2 12.3 12.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 13.6 14.1 13.6 -1.4 23.6 28.7 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------