***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.1 12.4 0.3 51.8 53.8 10.4 13.0 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 13.1 12.7 12.4 0.3 52.0 53.9 11.2 12.6 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 14.0 13.7 12.6 0.4 52.7 54.8 11.4 13.3 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.0 10.4 0.3 53.6 53.5 4.6 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.4 11.0 0.5 55.2 55.2 11.1 13.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.4 10.1 0.3 53.8 53.6 11.9 12.8 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 12.9 12.4 12.3 0.3 52.4 53.8 10.4 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.4 10.3 0.6 56.4 56.9 4.0 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.2 11.7 0.5 52.8 56.2 11.3 14.0 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.7 10.9 0.6 55.5 57.1 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.5 11.0 0.6 56.6 56.1 11.8 13.1 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.9 10.9 0.5 54.8 56.2 11.3 13.4 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.0 13.5 10.6 0.4 52.6 54.7 11.7 13.5 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 13.7 13.4 12.0 0.7 54.7 57.4 11.6 13.2 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.2 10.5 0.2 53.7 53.0 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.5 14.3 10.8 0.5 54.6 54.9 12.2 13.8 15.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 12.8 12.5 12.0 0.2 51.2 53.4 10.5 12.4 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.9 10.8 0.7 55.6 57.8 10.1 12.1 13.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 13.4 12.9 12.6 0.4 51.7 54.6 11.0 12.9 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.2 12.0 8.9 0.5 57.6 56.4 9.3 10.5 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.5 12.1 0.4 52.2 54.9 11.1 13.5 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 13.1 12.5 12.1 0.3 49.7 54.3 11.4 12.5 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 13.5 13.4 12.7 0.5 53.6 56.2 11.2 12.9 15.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 14.3 14.0 11.9 0.7 54.1 57.5 11.7 13.9 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.0 12.3 11.0 0.3 55.2 53.7 10.5 12.3 13.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.0 13.4 10.3 0.1 49.9 52.8 12.3 13.4 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.4 11.8 0.3 53.7 53.9 11.1 13.1 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.3 10.6 0.3 55.0 53.7 11.4 12.2 13.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.4 10.1 0.7 58.0 57.8 8.1 9.6 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 13.2 12.7 12.5 0.3 51.7 54.0 10.7 12.7 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------