***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 12.3 13.4 13.8 -0.5 37.3 45.5 12.9 15.5 16.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 12.5 14.0 13.7 -0.5 40.3 45.4 13.4 15.0 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 13.2 14.1 13.8 -0.5 39.1 45.3 13.8 15.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 5.8 8.6 11.4 -0.8 36.9 42.9 7.2 9.6 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 13.1 13.8 12.0 -0.6 36.7 44.4 13.6 15.7 16.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 12.6 14.1 11.1 -0.7 38.2 44.9 13.1 15.2 16.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 12.1 13.4 13.6 -0.5 40.5 45.6 13.0 14.5 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 5.2 6.8 11.4 -0.4 40.1 47.8 6.7 7.8 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 13.9 13.6 12.7 -0.5 37.1 45.5 13.4 15.9 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 13.3 13.3 12.0 -0.4 38.8 46.9 13.1 15.9 17.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 13.7 13.8 12.0 -0.6 37.6 45.3 13.6 16.1 17.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 12.7 13.3 11.9 -0.5 37.5 46.3 12.9 15.4 17.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 13.4 13.6 11.6 -0.7 35.3 44.7 13.2 15.1 17.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.7 13.1 -0.3 42.4 48.3 13.7 16.0 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 12.4 13.9 11.5 -0.9 36.8 42.4 13.2 15.4 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 14.2 14.4 11.7 -0.7 34.5 44.3 14.4 16.3 17.6 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 11.9 12.9 13.3 -0.6 39.7 45.5 12.7 13.6 14.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 12.3 13.0 11.8 -0.3 41.1 48.2 11.8 14.9 16.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 12.9 14.2 13.9 -0.5 40.8 45.7 12.7 15.5 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 10.3 11.3 10.1 -0.2 41.9 49.9 9.8 12.6 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 13.4 13.7 13.2 -0.6 36.7 44.9 13.5 15.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 12.9 14.2 13.5 -0.5 40.1 46.3 13.3 15.0 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 13.0 14.3 13.9 -0.4 41.7 46.7 13.0 15.6 16.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 13.5 13.9 13.0 -0.4 41.2 47.6 13.7 15.9 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 12.5 13.6 12.2 -0.5 38.6 45.2 13.2 15.0 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 13.0 13.6 11.6 -0.7 35.0 44.9 13.5 16.1 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 12.7 14.2 13.1 -0.4 39.7 46.2 13.9 15.5 15.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 12.0 13.8 11.6 -0.9 36.1 42.3 13.5 15.9 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.1 9.9 11.2 -0.2 41.2 49.3 9.2 11.6 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 12.5 13.6 13.8 -0.5 40.0 45.3 13.1 15.0 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------