***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 14.1 15.9 15.6 -0.6 43.4 43.4 13.7 16.3 17.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 14.3 15.4 15.3 -0.8 43.4 42.6 14.2 15.7 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 14.3 15.9 15.6 -0.7 41.9 43.4 15.0 16.6 18.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 7.2 8.5 13.6 -0.8 42.6 41.5 7.8 9.6 11.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 14.5 16.4 14.1 -0.6 43.4 42.9 15.6 16.9 18.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 14.2 16.2 13.9 0.1 45.4 48.5 14.9 16.2 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 14.4 15.5 15.3 -0.8 41.9 43.1 13.9 15.8 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.5 8.2 13.5 -0.1 45.9 47.9 7.3 8.4 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 14.6 16.5 14.7 -0.6 43.5 44.1 15.5 17.0 18.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 14.3 15.9 14.0 -0.3 44.4 46.5 14.5 16.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 14.5 16.2 14.2 -0.4 43.4 45.1 15.2 17.1 18.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 14.0 15.9 14.3 -0.1 45.1 47.2 15.3 16.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 14.7 16.4 14.2 -0.1 44.0 47.6 15.9 17.3 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 14.3 15.9 14.6 -0.5 42.6 45.3 15.3 16.7 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 14.2 15.2 13.7 -0.7 44.3 41.6 14.0 15.6 16.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 15.4 17.6 14.2 -0.3 44.0 45.5 16.4 17.9 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 14.0 14.5 14.8 -0.9 42.0 41.6 14.0 15.3 17.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 13.5 14.9 13.7 -0.2 44.2 48.1 13.5 15.4 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 14.2 14.9 15.5 -0.8 43.3 42.9 14.2 16.1 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 11.5 13.7 12.1 0.1 45.3 49.9 12.9 13.9 15.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 14.4 16.4 15.1 -0.7 42.7 43.2 15.0 16.8 18.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 14.5 15.0 14.9 -0.9 42.1 41.7 14.5 15.8 17.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 14.3 15.6 15.5 -0.7 41.9 43.8 15.0 16.0 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 14.3 16.5 14.8 -0.4 44.0 46.1 16.2 16.7 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 14.0 15.3 14.1 -0.6 42.4 43.0 13.8 16.4 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 14.7 16.4 14.2 0.0 43.8 48.4 16.0 16.7 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 14.7 16.3 14.9 -0.6 43.6 44.1 14.4 16.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 13.9 15.5 13.9 -0.7 43.1 41.7 14.4 15.8 17.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 10.7 12.3 13.1 0.0 45.4 49.2 10.9 12.9 14.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 14.2 15.4 15.5 -0.7 42.0 43.1 14.1 15.8 17.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------