***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 4.3 4.7 7.7 -0.2 43.8 47.0 4.5 5.0 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.9 4.9 7.3 -0.2 42.9 46.7 4.5 5.1 5.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.5 7.2 7.4 -0.2 44.9 46.3 6.5 7.3 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 1.3 2.1 4.9 -0.3 39.6 43.5 1.4 2.4 2.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.6 4.6 5.4 0.0 47.4 49.3 3.7 4.6 4.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 3.9 4.0 4.1 0.4 57.9 56.6 3.2 3.7 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 4.1 4.7 7.3 -0.2 42.2 47.0 4.5 5.0 5.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.4 0.7 4.6 0.6 62.3 59.8 -0.7 0.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.7 5.3 6.1 0.1 53.9 51.8 4.9 5.3 5.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.4 5.1 0.4 59.8 56.8 4.5 5.1 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.7 5.3 0.2 56.2 53.8 4.1 4.6 5.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.0 5.2 0.5 60.8 58.1 3.0 3.8 4.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.5 5.0 0.5 62.2 59.4 3.6 4.1 4.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.0 5.7 6.1 0.1 52.2 52.5 5.2 5.7 6.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.4 4.8 5.9 -0.2 43.3 46.4 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.6 5.7 4.9 0.2 56.1 53.9 4.9 5.4 5.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.2 4.6 6.8 -0.2 41.2 46.1 4.5 5.0 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 4.0 4.0 4.7 0.5 60.6 58.0 3.5 3.8 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.0 7.3 -0.2 43.1 46.9 4.4 5.1 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.1 1.1 3.4 0.8 63.6 62.2 0.0 1.0 1.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.2 4.6 7.0 -0.1 45.3 47.2 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.6 4.3 6.9 -0.2 40.2 45.3 3.8 4.5 5.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.2 4.8 7.1 -0.1 44.0 47.8 4.6 4.9 5.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.3 4.9 6.0 0.2 55.1 53.5 4.4 4.8 5.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 4.6 4.9 6.3 -0.2 42.3 45.8 4.7 5.2 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.8 5.1 0.6 65.0 61.1 3.9 4.6 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 4.6 5.0 7.1 -0.1 46.6 48.3 4.1 5.4 6.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.9 3.4 5.2 -0.2 42.3 46.0 3.0 3.6 4.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.9 4.3 0.6 61.1 60.4 2.3 3.2 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 4.4 5.2 7.5 -0.2 43.2 46.5 4.7 5.3 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------