***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.7 4.2 6.2 0.3 51.5 53.1 2.8 4.2 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.1 5.8 0.3 50.7 53.3 2.0 3.0 4.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.8 5.0 5.9 0.2 51.9 52.9 4.4 4.9 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -1.9 0.0 3.5 0.3 50.5 52.2 -1.3 0.0 2.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 0.9 3.2 3.7 0.3 52.9 53.2 1.8 3.0 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 0.0 2.3 1.9 0.1 50.9 51.9 0.7 2.1 3.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.6 2.9 5.8 0.3 49.4 53.4 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -2.6 -0.2 2.6 0.5 56.2 55.0 -2.6 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.2 4.3 4.4 0.4 55.3 54.0 3.2 4.0 5.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 4.7 4.4 3.3 0.5 56.1 54.9 2.9 4.2 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 1.3 3.9 3.5 0.4 56.2 53.8 2.2 3.7 4.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 0.2 2.6 3.3 0.4 54.0 53.8 1.2 2.2 3.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 0.5 2.6 2.7 0.2 50.1 52.5 0.7 2.6 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.3 4.4 0.4 52.4 55.1 3.2 4.2 5.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.7 3.9 4.1 0.3 50.7 52.9 2.7 3.9 4.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 1.8 3.9 3.0 0.3 50.6 52.9 2.1 3.9 5.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.3 5.5 0.3 48.8 53.3 2.4 3.3 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.8 2.8 0.5 54.9 56.2 0.8 2.5 3.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.9 3.5 5.8 0.3 51.3 53.6 2.6 3.5 4.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 0.3 0.1 1.3 0.5 53.4 56.3 -1.6 -0.1 1.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 1.8 4.0 5.4 0.3 53.3 53.3 2.5 3.8 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 3.4 2.8 5.5 0.3 49.2 53.9 2.0 2.8 4.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.1 3.5 5.6 0.3 50.7 54.1 2.5 3.5 4.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.8 4.3 0.4 54.0 55.0 2.2 3.8 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 1.9 3.7 4.7 0.2 49.8 52.7 2.5 3.7 5.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.0 2.9 2.8 0.1 49.4 51.9 1.1 3.0 4.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 1.5 3.3 5.5 0.3 49.9 53.2 1.7 3.3 5.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 -0.2 1.9 3.6 0.3 49.4 52.5 0.9 1.9 3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.8 2.4 0.5 53.6 56.7 0.6 1.5 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 1.9 3.6 6.0 0.2 50.5 53.0 2.7 3.5 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------