***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.10.2015.-01.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.3 7.2 -0.2 50.9 48.5 3.3 4.3 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.8 6.9 -0.2 53.8 49.1 2.6 4.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.8 7.5 6.9 -0.2 52.8 48.9 5.8 7.1 8.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 -0.2 1.9 4.4 -0.5 48.1 46.3 1.0 2.0 3.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 1.9 2.8 4.5 -0.4 50.0 47.1 1.9 2.8 5.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.0 3.2 -0.3 44.8 48.1 1.3 2.3 4.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.1 4.8 6.9 -0.2 52.4 48.8 3.1 4.7 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.7 -0.5 3.4 -0.3 47.8 49.3 -1.7 -0.4 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 5.0 4.2 5.2 -0.4 50.3 48.2 3.1 4.2 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 4.5 3.7 4.0 -0.3 49.2 48.7 2.5 3.7 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.2 3.4 4.3 -0.4 48.9 47.7 2.2 3.4 5.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.2 2.0 4.1 -0.4 46.4 48.0 1.7 2.0 4.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 1.5 2.4 3.7 -0.5 46.0 47.0 1.6 2.5 4.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.4 5.3 -0.3 51.3 48.6 3.6 5.4 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.6 3.8 4.9 -0.5 44.4 45.4 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 4.6 3.8 3.9 -0.4 47.9 47.3 3.1 3.9 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.5 5.1 6.5 -0.1 53.7 48.8 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.4 3.7 -0.2 49.0 48.7 1.2 2.6 4.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.3 4.8 6.8 -0.2 53.8 49.1 3.2 4.7 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -1.3 -0.4 2.2 -0.2 46.4 49.4 -1.0 -0.4 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.6 4.1 6.3 -0.3 51.7 48.6 3.1 4.1 5.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 1.6 4.0 6.5 -0.2 53.4 48.9 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.2 4.8 6.6 -0.2 54.1 48.6 2.3 4.7 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.8 5.2 -0.2 51.9 48.7 2.8 3.7 5.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.6 4.1 5.7 -0.4 48.2 47.1 3.0 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.0 2.7 3.9 -0.6 41.3 45.7 2.5 3.1 4.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.5 4.6 6.4 -0.3 48.5 47.8 2.6 4.7 6.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 1.1 2.6 4.5 -0.5 45.7 46.1 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.4 2.6 3.2 -0.2 47.9 48.7 2.0 2.6 4.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.9 7.1 -0.2 52.9 49.0 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------