***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.10.2015.-25.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.1 5.8 9.2 0.4 53.4 53.0 5.1 5.5 6.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.8 5.3 8.6 0.3 50.8 52.4 4.4 5.3 7.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.8 9.0 0.6 55.7 55.0 6.3 7.3 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.9 3.6 6.9 0.8 58.3 57.5 1.1 2.3 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.7 5.7 7.1 1.0 60.4 58.9 4.2 5.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 5.4 5.7 6.0 1.7 69.0 66.5 3.9 4.8 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.6 5.6 8.5 0.2 51.5 51.2 4.6 5.5 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.9 2.7 6.2 1.6 68.3 65.3 -0.6 1.6 2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.1 7.7 1.0 60.7 58.9 4.6 6.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.7 6.7 1.4 64.6 62.7 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.0 7.0 1.3 65.7 63.0 4.5 5.8 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.3 6.0 6.9 1.6 68.7 65.9 3.9 5.0 6.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 6.3 6.2 6.6 1.6 68.0 65.9 4.7 5.5 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.5 7.2 7.5 0.9 59.6 58.4 4.9 6.0 7.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.3 5.3 7.4 0.9 61.3 59.1 4.6 4.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.1 6.7 1.4 68.0 64.0 5.8 6.4 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.6 8.1 0.1 51.6 51.1 4.4 5.5 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.7 6.3 1.4 64.6 63.0 3.8 5.0 5.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.4 6.0 8.7 0.4 52.3 53.9 4.4 5.7 7.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.6 3.4 4.9 1.5 66.5 63.7 1.0 2.2 3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.0 8.6 0.7 56.4 56.3 4.9 5.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.0 5.4 8.1 0.2 50.6 51.8 4.1 5.4 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.3 5.9 8.6 0.6 55.8 56.1 4.4 5.3 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.6 6.1 7.6 1.1 62.5 60.1 4.3 5.2 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.3 7.9 0.6 54.4 55.0 5.3 5.9 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.5 6.8 1.7 69.9 67.0 4.8 5.5 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.7 8.5 0.5 53.7 53.9 5.3 6.5 7.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 4.7 4.6 7.0 0.9 60.4 59.1 3.6 4.3 4.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 4.3 5.3 5.9 1.5 66.0 63.2 2.0 3.7 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.5 5.9 8.9 0.3 52.0 52.6 4.5 5.8 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------