***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.10.2015.-18.10.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 6.9 4.9 8.2 -1.1 34.5 35.0 4.8 6.2 7.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.7 4.4 7.8 -1.0 29.7 34.8 4.6 6.1 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 7.1 6.8 7.9 -1.3 27.3 30.7 6.8 8.4 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 2.3 2.1 4.9 -1.8 17.7 22.7 2.7 3.8 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.0 4.1 6.1 -1.0 33.7 35.8 4.0 5.7 7.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 5.2 5.4 5.4 0.1 57.1 55.0 3.4 4.7 6.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.5 5.0 7.9 -0.9 31.4 37.0 5.0 5.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 3.1 2.9 6.0 0.5 63.4 60.7 -0.4 1.0 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.1 6.3 7.1 -0.5 39.7 42.8 5.9 6.7 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.2 6.8 6.4 0.1 53.8 54.3 5.1 6.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 6.8 5.8 6.3 -0.5 43.1 44.5 4.4 6.4 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.8 6.5 0.2 60.0 56.1 3.6 4.9 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 7.1 7.8 6.8 0.8 72.1 65.8 3.3 5.4 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.4 5.9 7.2 -0.4 38.2 44.3 5.6 6.9 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 5.3 4.8 7.1 -1.3 23.4 28.7 6.3 7.1 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.8 6.2 -0.3 49.0 47.4 5.6 6.8 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.8 5.3 7.3 -1.0 29.0 34.1 5.4 6.2 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.2 6.0 0.3 56.2 56.9 4.7 5.7 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 5.1 4.3 7.8 -1.1 27.0 32.6 4.7 6.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 3.7 4.4 5.3 1.3 75.8 71.7 0.6 1.8 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 4.1 4.2 7.6 -1.3 25.7 29.9 5.2 5.8 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 3.8 3.8 7.4 -1.3 21.6 28.2 4.4 5.9 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.7 4.6 7.8 -1.1 26.0 32.2 5.1 6.3 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.4 5.7 7.1 -0.4 42.0 45.6 5.2 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.0 4.6 7.1 -1.4 28.5 31.3 4.7 6.7 7.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 7.6 8.1 7.0 1.2 79.3 71.2 4.7 5.8 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.2 4.7 7.9 -0.8 37.7 39.2 4.2 6.5 8.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 3.3 3.0 5.7 -1.4 24.7 28.2 3.6 4.7 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 5.9 5.7 5.9 0.8 66.8 64.6 3.5 4.5 5.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.0 4.6 8.0 -1.1 30.0 34.2 4.9 6.9 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------