***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 38.6 38.4 57.1 105.0 60.0 55.6 18.7 31.9 48.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 36.8 43.7 54.5 113.2 64.5 61.1 17.9 31.0 45.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 41.1 41.3 56.0 105.2 57.7 55.9 22.9 33.8 49.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 49.5 53.4 64.8 106.6 57.3 53.8 27.1 41.2 59.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 41.6 36.7 58.5 102.2 54.1 51.8 27.4 35.7 50.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 41.8 44.7 63.9 112.2 62.4 57.4 24.4 36.4 45.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 29.5 41.1 54.6 113.0 63.7 60.2 18.8 25.6 41.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 64.8 52.1 60.8 100.6 48.9 49.5 33.0 56.4 71.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 38.1 36.7 58.1 101.1 56.5 52.0 25.7 32.0 50.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 49.5 42.5 59.8 98.2 51.7 48.9 29.2 40.5 59.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 44.5 41.7 60.1 104.7 55.5 52.3 20.8 39.3 53.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 20.9 37.5 58.3 105.2 52.3 52.3 27.0 35.5 50.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 43.0 48.2 61.6 106.7 60.1 55.1 30.3 37.1 53.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 67.0 62.8 62.8 103.1 57.9 54.9 37.7 58.9 79.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 38.0 44.2 67.9 108.9 59.7 54.4 13.3 33.9 45.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 41.3 41.1 59.5 105.4 58.7 53.4 18.4 34.1 49.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 46.3 38.7 55.4 119.3 68.0 63.6 17.2 27.3 38.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 47.2 43.0 60.0 96.9 52.6 48.5 28.0 39.6 64.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 42.3 72.1 54.9 112.0 65.1 60.5 21.6 32.8 74.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 56.1 46.6 68.2 95.6 47.2 47.4 32.2 48.2 67.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 41.3 39.3 57.0 102.0 58.2 53.2 20.7 34.2 47.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 58.2 62.4 56.0 117.7 71.9 64.0 15.6 37.8 56.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 47.1 57.1 56.4 109.4 63.5 58.5 27.5 38.7 63.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 55.8 53.5 58.6 101.0 56.4 52.3 35.1 45.3 58.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 40.8 35.8 60.6 101.2 55.2 53.0 18.3 32.8 43.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 42.3 47.4 63.0 112.5 64.3 56.8 31.4 37.8 49.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 34.3 32.9 58.4 103.3 58.0 54.6 19.8 27.3 46.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 37.7 41.8 63.4 107.8 60.1 53.8 17.0 33.3 44.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 58.9 48.5 61.7 95.0 49.7 47.6 41.1 48.7 89.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 34.9 40.0 54.8 109.9 62.5 58.9 18.1 29.8 52.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------