***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.10.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.10.2016.-06.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.4 8.3 8.3 59.2 47.8 34.7 0.8 8.4 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 1.2 3.2 6.9 58.1 49.0 34.2 0.7 3.4 13.6 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 3.0 5.3 8.1 59.7 47.7 34.8 1.2 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 1.9 3.6 8.6 57.7 47.8 34.8 1.8 4.1 9.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 1.9 4.4 8.3 59.1 45.4 34.0 2.3 5.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 0.7 1.5 8.6 63.3 47.6 34.4 0.0 2.2 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 1.4 3.3 6.9 58.7 46.6 35.1 0.3 3.8 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.5 6.7 9.1 64.8 44.7 34.7 2.4 9.6 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.1 8.5 59.2 46.2 33.7 2.2 5.3 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 2.5 6.3 9.1 61.5 44.8 33.5 1.6 6.7 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 2.0 3.7 8.1 61.7 43.0 33.0 0.8 5.4 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.2 4.4 8.4 67.3 45.5 35.2 1.1 6.0 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 1.9 3.8 9.3 70.8 47.8 37.0 0.6 4.7 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.0 13.0 9.9 62.8 48.0 35.8 2.5 13.6 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 0.9 2.3 8.9 58.1 48.8 35.7 0.7 2.5 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 2.0 3.3 8.2 64.4 46.3 35.0 0.1 5.8 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.0 4.0 7.5 68.2 52.9 37.7 0.2 2.8 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.6 7.8 9.7 63.2 44.6 34.8 3.4 10.6 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 1.7 4.4 7.1 58.2 48.3 34.3 1.3 4.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 3.5 5.4 11.5 64.7 44.4 35.0 0.8 9.4 17.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.4 6.0 8.3 58.0 47.4 34.7 2.0 7.7 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 0.8 2.4 8.0 68.8 50.6 38.1 0.2 2.3 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 2.1 3.9 7.7 58.5 46.0 34.7 1.9 5.2 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.6 6.6 9.3 62.4 46.0 35.2 1.7 8.5 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.0 4.7 9.0 57.6 47.3 34.9 0.2 4.9 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 1.2 3.8 9.1 71.5 50.3 37.3 0.3 3.8 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.4 6.1 8.5 58.0 46.0 35.0 0.2 8.4 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 0.7 2.0 8.3 59.8 49.2 35.4 0.4 2.1 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.5 5.0 9.9 61.7 43.2 34.4 3.7 13.8 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.5 3.7 7.1 56.7 46.5 33.5 0.8 4.1 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------